Part of: South Carolina Special Senate Republican Primary: Runoff Margin of Victory
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the SC Republican Senate special primary runoff by 5–10%?
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $6,953.
Categories: Politics, Elections, Primaries, Republican Primary, August 25 Primaries, South Carolina Primary
Notable Trades
91% winner scaling into No
A highly profitable bettor with a 91% win rate added substantially to an existing No position before No surged from 50% to 98%.
- This bettor has won 91% of 45 resolved trades and is up $33,340 lifetime.
- They added $1,879 to an existing No position at 50¢, showing increased conviction in a market that later moved to 98% No.
- The trade helped precede a rapid 45-point surge in No, although much of the opportunity is now priced in.
$1,880 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
Profitable serial trader flips to Yes
A highly experienced, profitable serial trader made a large contrarian Yes bet in a thin political market, although the subsequent collapse makes the trade more useful to study than blindly copy.
- This bettor has won 73% of 1,189 resolved trades and is up $1.09 million lifetime.
- The $1,705 Yes purchase at 50¢ was unusually large relative to recent volume, and the price then plunged to 6%.
- The wallet had previously closed a sizable No position, suggesting a deliberate flip in direction rather than routine position management.
$1,705 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 73%
91% win-rate bettor adds to No
A proven 91% win-rate bettor with a substantial positive edge added roughly $3,368 to No in a rapidly repricing, thin market.
- This bettor has won 91% of 45 resolved trades and is up $33,340.
- They added about $3,368 to No at 50¢, reinforcing an existing $9,765 No position.
- No moved sharply higher in under five minutes in a relatively thin market, supporting the bettor’s direction.
$3,368 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 22852182, $15,673
- 0xac4a...bf1e — Outcome 71945718, $3,636
- 0x07b9...0fbb — Outcome 71945718, $456
- 0x7e25...9712 — Outcome 71945718, $426 (30% win rate)
- 0xd24b...ef76 — Outcome 71945718, $384 (74% win rate)
- 0x5533...51ba — Outcome 71945718, $201
- 0xac7a...414f — Outcome 71945718, $191
- 0x38f5...6824 — Outcome 71945718, $164 (51% win rate)
- 0x67ac...edf1 — Outcome 71945718, $137 (65% win rate)
- 0xb340...dbb1 — Outcome 71945718, $70
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