Part of: Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner

Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $18,058.

Categories: Politics, Elections, Primaries, primary elections, Governor Primary, Democratic Primary, Wisconsin Primary, US Election, August 11 Primaries

Notable Trades

Serial trader makes concentrated No bet

A serial cross-market trader with 1,131 resolved bets placed a concentrated $3,018 No position in a thin political market, and No has since risen from 50% to 60%.

This bettor has won 74% of 1,131 resolved trades and is up $141,342 lifetime.
The $3,018 bet represented nearly half of the detected $6,191 in 24-hour volume in this relatively thin market.
No rose from the 50¢ entry to about 60%, reinforcing the trader's direction so far.

$1,712 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%

Multi-wallet No cluster after Yes surge

Three wallets committed $9,100 to No amid a major Yes price surge, with one participant showing an 86% historical win rate and serial cross-market activity.

Three wallets placed $9,100 on No while Yes surged 54.5% in one day, creating a notable contrarian position.
One participant wins 86% of 659 resolved bets and has traded across 30 events, though its sell appears partly related to profit-taking.
The No entries were around 44–50¢, implying the traders see David Crowley’s chance below the current 59% Yes price.

$9,100 on No

Coordinated Yes buying amid sharp surge

Three wallets concentrated roughly $4.2k of Yes exposure amid a 19x volume spike and 50% one-day price surge, though their weak track records and existing positions temper conviction.

Three wallets added roughly $4,228 of effective Yes exposure, including a No sale equivalent to buying Yes.
Trading volume reached 19.3 times its recent average while Yes odds jumped 50.5% in one day.
The wallets already held substantial positions and have weak overall records, so this is a momentum signal rather than proven sharp-bettor activity.

$4,228 on Yes

Serial trader makes concentrated No bet

A serial cross-market trader with 1,131 resolved bets placed a concentrated $3,018 No position in a thin political market, and No has since risen from 50% to 60%.

This bettor has won 74% of 1,131 resolved trades and is up $141,342 lifetime.
The $3,018 bet represented nearly half of the detected $6,191 in 24-hour volume in this relatively thin market.
No rose from the 50¢ entry to about 60%, reinforcing the trader's direction so far.

$3,018 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%

Top Holders

0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 35910824, $117,913
0x8931...a90c — Outcome 53782419, $50,050 (95% win rate)
0x2061...8ec9 — Outcome 35910824, $44,584 (23% win rate)
0x6480...8dc5 — Outcome 35910824, $24,197 (19% win rate)
0x0224...292a — Outcome 35910824, $13,991 (55% win rate)
0xbdd1...0c4f — Outcome 35910824, $13,003
0xac4a...bf1e — Outcome 35910824, $6,257
0x6404...f250 — Outcome 35910824, $5,000 (68% win rate)
0xda68...6b7b — Outcome 35910824, $5,000 (88% win rate)
0x000d...758e — Outcome 35910824, $5,000 (86% win rate)

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Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?

ResolvedWisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner$18,058 tracked4 signalsPoliticsElectionsPrimariesprimary electionsGovernor PrimaryDemocratic PrimaryWisconsin PrimaryUS ElectionAugust 11 Primaries

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Wisconsin, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Wisconsin Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.