Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 70 seats?

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $4,134.

Categories: Hungary Election, Global Elections, Orban, Magyar, Politics, Elections, Hungary

Notable Trades

Profitable election trader early

Profitable high-volume political trader bought No before a sharp repricing, taking 85¢ entry in a market that has since moved to 96¢.

This bettor has a long record: 835 resolved trades, 57% win rate, and $731k profit
They bought No at 85¢ before the market jumped to 96¢, locking in an 11-point move
They trade heavily across election markets, with 102 related markets across 47 events

$1,613 on No | Wallet win rate: 57%

84% win-rate political bettor

A proven high-win-rate political trader with broad cross-market activity bought into a meaningful recent dip in this Hungary seats market, making it a credible copy-trade signal despite only modest size.

This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up about $303k overall.
They have traded 82 markets across 45 events, which points to a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet.
They bought Yes at 59¢ after the market fell 12 points over the last week, suggesting they see the recent drop as too cheap.

$2,521 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

Top Holders

0xf94f...9ada — Outcome 94271656, $12,926 (62% win rate)
0xecaa...77a9 — Outcome 94271656, $7,981 (68% win rate)
0xdc03...804c — Outcome 94271656, $7,728 (82% win rate)
0x0d2f...59d2 — Outcome 94271656, $1,890 (33% win rate)
0xea65...69f3 — Outcome 94271656, $1,696
0x6744...a081 — Outcome 94271656, $1,410
0x414b...0d3f — Outcome 94271656, $1,236
0x41c7...3093 — Outcome 94271656, $1,161
0xa87e...0419 — Outcome 94271656, $974
0xc8c7...3726 — Outcome 94271656, $779

Related Theses

Covers 7 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 1 related market

Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 70 seats?

Resolved$4,134 tracked2 signalsHungary ElectionGlobal ElectionsOrbanMagyarPoliticsElectionsHungary

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Fidesz-KDNP wins at least the listed number of seats in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified coalition. If the specified coalition dissolves prior to the election, this market will resolve based on the total number of seats won by the two component parties. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).