Part of: Brazil Presidential Election
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
This Brazil 2026 election prediction market tracks whether Flávio Bolsonaro wins the presidential election, including any potential second round. The election is scheduled for October 4, 2026, and the market resolves based on credible reporting of the result; it resolves to “Other” if the outcome is unknown by June 30, 2027. PolySpotter currently shows smart money activity including clustered buying on both Yes and No positions.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
38 smart money signals detected, totaling $139,507.
Categories: Brazil, Global Elections, World Elections, World, Politics, Macro Election 2, Main Election, Rewards 200, 4.5, 50
Notable Trades
Six-wallet funded cluster adding Yes
A wallet in a six-wallet common-funder cluster is adding to an existing Yes position, providing a meaningful coordinated-conviction signal despite limited evidence of bettor skill.
- This wallet is part of a six-wallet cluster sharing the same funder, a strong concentration signal.
- It added $3,455 to an existing Yes position, increasing exposure rather than taking routine profits.
- The 31¢ entry implies the cluster sees meaningful upside in Flávio Bolsonaro winning, though the wallet's 66% win rate is not independently exceptional.
$1,316 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
81% winner scaling into Yes
A high-volume bettor with an 81% historical win rate is adding $14,069 to an existing Yes position, though the negative lifetime P&L reduces confidence.
- This bettor has won 81% of 251 resolved trades and reportedly beats implied odds by 24%.
- They added $14,069 to an existing Yes position, bringing total investment to $26,059.
- The market has risen 11.2% over the past week, supporting the direction, though the wallet's lifetime P&L remains negative.
$14,069 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%
Six-wallet funded cluster adding Yes
A wallet in a six-wallet common-funder cluster is adding to an existing Yes position, providing a meaningful coordinated-conviction signal despite limited evidence of bettor skill.
- This wallet is part of a six-wallet cluster sharing the same funder, a strong concentration signal.
- It added $3,455 to an existing Yes position, increasing exposure rather than taking routine profits.
- The 31¢ entry implies the cluster sees meaningful upside in Flávio Bolsonaro winning, though the wallet's 66% win rate is not independently exceptional.
$5,452 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Sharp bettor adds to Yes position
A highly profitable serial trader with an 82% win rate is adding to a large existing Yes position at 33%, supporting this as a notable directional bet.
- This bettor has won 82% of 217 resolved trades and is up $1.1 million.
- They already have $123,660 invested in Yes and are adding at 33¢ as the price rises.
- The 33¢ entry implies roughly a 3-to-1 payoff if Flávio Bolsonaro wins.
$1,337 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Six-wallet funded cluster adding Yes
A wallet in a six-wallet common-funder cluster is adding to an existing Yes position, providing a meaningful coordinated-conviction signal despite limited evidence of bettor skill.
- This wallet is part of a six-wallet cluster sharing the same funder, a strong concentration signal.
- It added $3,455 to an existing Yes position, increasing exposure rather than taking routine profits.
- The 31¢ entry implies the cluster sees meaningful upside in Flávio Bolsonaro winning, though the wallet's 66% win rate is not independently exceptional.
$1,738 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Sharp bettor adds to Yes position
A highly profitable serial trader with an 82% win rate is adding to a large existing Yes position at 33%, supporting this as a notable directional bet.
- This bettor has won 82% of 217 resolved trades and is up $1.1 million.
- They already have $123,660 invested in Yes and are adding at 33¢ as the price rises.
- The 33¢ entry implies roughly a 3-to-1 payoff if Flávio Bolsonaro wins.
$2,753 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Six-wallet funded cluster adding Yes
A wallet in a six-wallet common-funder cluster is adding to an existing Yes position, providing a meaningful coordinated-conviction signal despite limited evidence of bettor skill.
- This wallet is part of a six-wallet cluster sharing the same funder, a strong concentration signal.
- It added $3,455 to an existing Yes position, increasing exposure rather than taking routine profits.
- The 31¢ entry implies the cluster sees meaningful upside in Flávio Bolsonaro winning, though the wallet's 66% win rate is not independently exceptional.
$1,368 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Sharp bettor adds to Yes position
A highly profitable serial trader with an 82% win rate is adding to a large existing Yes position at 33%, supporting this as a notable directional bet.
- This bettor has won 82% of 217 resolved trades and is up $1.1 million.
- They already have $123,660 invested in Yes and are adding at 33¢ as the price rises.
- The 33¢ entry implies roughly a 3-to-1 payoff if Flávio Bolsonaro wins.
$9,008 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Elite serial bettor adds to Yes
A highly profitable serial trader with an 82% win rate and $811,577 lifetime P&L is adding to an existing Yes position at 36%.
- This bettor wins 82% of 1,542 resolved positions and is up $811,577 lifetime.
- The wallet is increasing an existing Yes position, with $57,326 already invested at a 36¢ average entry.
- The 36¢ entry is supported by recent momentum, with the market up 2.9% over the past week.
$1,409 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Three proven bettors adding to Yes
Three profitable, highly active bettors jointly added $7,726 to Yes, including a 92% winner with a large existing position, providing meaningful directional confirmation despite the market's deep liquidity.
- Three wallets bought Yes together for $7,726, and the market has risen 4.2% over the past week.
- One bettor has won 92% of 189 resolved trades and already holds a $219,000 Yes position.
- The other participants are serial cross-market traders with 70% and 55% win rates, adding to existing Yes positions rather than making isolated bets.
$7,726 on Yes
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $3,404,739
- 0xeb49...693e — Yes, $234,432 (92% win rate)
- 0x8aa7...0d94 — Yes, $177,858 (17% win rate)
- 0xb1ce...ced2 — Yes, $158,387
- 0x23d8...0288 — Yes, $151,552 (82% win rate)
- 0xfb51...742d — Yes, $145,649 (71% win rate)
- 0x88c4...129a — Yes, $97,259 (90% win rate)
- 0xbacd...ab35 — Yes, $97,193 (49% win rate)
- 0xcb25...5ab5 — Yes, $82,407 (50% win rate)
- 0xf2f6...5817 — Yes, $79,082 (75% win rate)
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