Part of: Peru Election 2nd Round: Margin of Victory? (0.1% brackets)

Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%?

This prediction market asks whether Fujimori will win the second round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by a razor-thin 0.1% to 0.2% margin of valid votes. The runoff is scheduled for June 7, 2026, and the market resolves based on the official margin between the top two candidates. PolySpotter currently tracks $1,853 in smart money activity and 1 signal for this market.

The second round of the Peru presidential election is scheduled to be held on June 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/) If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,853.

Categories: Elections, Peru Election, Global Elections, Peru, Politics

Notable Trades

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with 899 resolved bets is buying No on a niche Peru election margin market.

  • This bettor wins 69% of resolved trades and is up about $907K lifetime.
  • They have traded across 108 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy rather than a one-off bet.
  • The bet is against a very narrow 0.1–0.2% victory margin, bought at 80¢ in a relatively small market.

$1,853 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 No, $9,291
  2. 0x23d8...0288 Yes, $8,385 (78% win rate)
  3. 0xb1ca...1705 No, $5,145 (59% win rate)
  4. 0xecaa...77a9 No, $2,320 (69% win rate)
  5. 0xe904...2d9f Yes, $1,231
  6. 0xc8ab...6418 Yes, $1,170 (47% win rate)
  7. 0x7fdc...1830 Yes, $1,105 (100% win rate)
  8. 0x9163...82ae Yes, $918
  9. 0xc23d...82c8 Yes, $828 (90% win rate)
  10. 0xa4b3...87b8 Yes, $500 (4% win rate)

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Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%?

Peru Election 2nd Round: Margin of Victory? (0.1% brackets)$1,853 tracked1 signalElectionsPeru ElectionGlobal ElectionsPeruPolitics
Yes
10¢
No
90¢

The second round of the Peru presidential election is scheduled to be held on June 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/) If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Price History — “No
93¢
76¢
58¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%?

2h ago

$1,853 on No at 80¢

80¢90¢10¢

Related Theses