Part of: Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Vote Share?

Will Grüne win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes?

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $3,784.

Categories: World, Germany, Politics, Elections, Saxony-Anhalt, Sachsen-Anhalt, World Elections, German Elections, Global Elections, International Election Props

Notable Trades

Serial sharp scaling into Yes

A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with 393 resolved positions and a strong win-rate edge made a fresh, concentrated Yes bet in a thin market.

  • This bettor has won 82% of 393 resolved trades and earned over $615,000 in reported profit.
  • The $3,784 Yes purchase at 65¢ was larger than the detected 24-hour market volume, signaling strong conviction in a relatively thin market.
  • The market has already risen 10.5% over the past week, consistent with the bettor's direction.

$3,784 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 Outcome 80125359, $32,192
  2. 0xe3f2...e1c1 Outcome 10123583, $8,492 (79% win rate)
  3. 0x94c4...43ca Outcome 10123583, $4,758 (76% win rate)
  4. 0x8a4c...532b Outcome 10123583, $4,603 (53% win rate)
  5. 0xa2ac...7f76 Outcome 10123583, $2,632 (76% win rate)
  6. 0x1e3a...9e14 Outcome 10123583, $1,218 (74% win rate)
  7. 0x5a21...9318 Outcome 10123583, $700 (62% win rate)
  8. 0x8f0b...eb6d Outcome 10123583, $635 (50% win rate)
  9. 0xe8c4...395d Outcome 10123583, $500 (94% win rate)
  10. 0xa667...ceb3 Outcome 10123583, $330 (90% win rate)

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Will Grüne win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes?

ResolvedSachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Vote Share?$3,784 tracked1 signalWorldGermanyPoliticsElectionsSaxony-AnhaltSachsen-AnhaltWorld ElectionsGerman ElectionsGlobal ElectionsInternational Election Props

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Grüne in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).

Price History — “No
102¢
67¢
32¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Grüne win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes?

4d ago

$3,784 on Yes at 65¢

Related Theses