Part of: Berlin State Election: Grüne Vote Share?
Will Grüne win less than 14% of all valid second votes?
This prediction market asks whether Grüne will receive less than 14% of all valid second votes in Berlin’s September 20, 2026 Abgeordnetenhaus election. The market’s live Yes/No odds reflect trader expectations and will resolve using the party’s official Zweitstimme percentage; an exact 14% result resolves to the higher bracket.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Grüne in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $4,096.
Categories: World, Berlin, Germany, Politics, Elections, World Elections, German Elections, Global Elections, International Election Props
Notable Trades
Large quiet-market No bet
A nearly market-defining $2.9K No bet in an extremely quiet market is notable, though the trader's middling 56% win rate limits the copying case.
- This $2,903 position accounts for roughly 57 times the market's entire 24-hour volume.
- The serial trader has participated across 162 events and 192 markets, but a 56% win rate is not a strong edge.
- No has already risen from 79¢ to 83¢ after the entry, suggesting the trade moved the thin market.
$1,193 on No | Wallet win rate: 55%
Large quiet-market No bet
A nearly market-defining $2.9K No bet in an extremely quiet market is notable, though the trader's middling 56% win rate limits the copying case.
- This $2,903 position accounts for roughly 57 times the market's entire 24-hour volume.
- The serial trader has participated across 162 events and 192 markets, but a 56% win rate is not a strong edge.
- No has already risen from 79¢ to 83¢ after the entry, suggesting the trade moved the thin market.
$2,903 on No | Wallet win rate: 55%
Top Holders
- 0x629b...995a — Yes, $6,432 (53% win rate)
- 0xb1ca...1705 — No, $5,305 (55% win rate)
- 0x23d8...0288 — Yes, $1,582 (82% win rate)
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $1,005
- 0xe8c4...395d — No, $848 (94% win rate)
- 0x5a54...50fd — No, $586
- 0xd8d5...8935 — Yes, $300 (73% win rate)
- 0xc602...7fc1 — No, $155 (43% win rate)
- 0xbdd0...550a — No, $150
- 0xfde6...7ed6 — Yes, $144 (70% win rate)
Related Theses
iShowSpeed will not win award
Covers 1 related market
SPD will win outside 26-29 seats
Covers 1 related market
CDU will win 8–11%
Covers 2 related markets
Shabana Mahmood won’t leave first
Covers 1 related market
Zateslo will not win nomination
Covers 1 related market
Neither Lowden nor Turner becomes Bond
Covers 2 related markets
Fujimori wins Peru presidency
Covers 2 related markets
None of These Albums Will Win
Covers 3 related markets
Morgan Wallen tops Billboard in 2026
Covers 1 related market
Moraes remains a Supreme Court justice
Covers 1 related market
