Part of: Israel Announces Ceasefire Extended by...?

Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?

This prediction market asks whether Israel will officially announce another extension of the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire by 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time on May 15, 2026. It resolves “Yes” if Israel publicly commits to halting direct military engagement with Hezbollah through an extension or qualifying new agreement; otherwise it resolves “No.” PolySpotter is tracking $1,496 in smart money activity on this market, including one recent signal from a serial macro trader.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel officially announces another extension of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah announced on April 16, 2026, defined as a publicly announced commitment to halt direct military engagement with Hezbollah, by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Both announcements of extensions of the April 16 ceasefire, as extended on April 23, 2026, and of new agreements will qualify. If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the Israeli government that Israel has extended its commitment to the ceasefire beyond its current scheduled end. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed Israeli announcement of a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify. A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes Israel's agreement to a ceasefire extension. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly extend the ceasefire, will not qualify. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli government and will not require confirmation from Hezbollah. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting that a ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,496.

Categories: Geopolitics, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Israel, Middle East

Notable Trades

81% serial macro trader

Serial cross-market trader with an 81% long-run win rate bought No at 75¢ on an Israel ceasefire-extension market.

  • This bettor has won 81% of 1,693 resolved bets across 127 markets.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader with $644K flagged across 45 events, suggesting a repeatable event-trading approach.
  • They bought No at 75¢ while the market sits near 73%, backing the view that no extension announcement comes by the deadline.

$1,496 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%

Top Holders

  1. 0xdf17...97d1 Yes, $4,905 (53% win rate)
  2. 0x4158...ce9f Yes, $3,687 (40% win rate)
  3. 0x6964...ef53 No, $2,550 (81% win rate)
  4. 0xaf23...aa95 No, $2,108 (56% win rate)
  5. 0x2940...304c Yes, $1,843 (68% win rate)
  6. 0x4a2b...af20 Yes, $1,500 (38% win rate)
  7. 0x830b...0a93 No, $1,496
  8. 0xcb01...ead3 No, $1,050 (0% win rate)
  9. 0x8a1e...bd03 No, $851
  10. 0x8454...331a No, $840 (93% win rate)

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Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?

1dIsrael Announces Ceasefire Extended by...?$1,496 tracked1 signalGeopoliticsLebanonHezbollahIsraelMiddle East
Yes
14¢
No
86¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel officially announces another extension of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah announced on April 16, 2026, defined as a publicly announced commitment to halt direct military engagement with Hezbollah, by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Both announcements of extensions of the April 16 ceasefire, as extended on April 23, 2026, and of new agreements will qualify. If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect. A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the Israeli government that Israel has extended its commitment to the ceasefire beyond its current scheduled end. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed Israeli announcement of a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify. A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes Israel's agreement to a ceasefire extension. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly extend the ceasefire, will not qualify. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli government and will not require confirmation from Hezbollah. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting that a ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.

Price History — “No
88¢
70¢
52¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?

2h ago

$1,496 on No at 75¢

75¢86¢11¢

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