Part of: Colombia Presidential Election
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
This prediction market asks whether Ivan Cepeda Castro will win Colombia’s 2026 presidential election, including a potential second-round runoff. The election is scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a runoff on June 21 if no candidate wins over 50% in the first round; recent smart-money alerts have leaned toward NO, with $3,000 tracked across 1 signal.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
12 smart money signals detected, totaling $30,127.
Categories: Politics, Global Elections, Elections, World, World Elections, Colombia Election, Colombia, Main Election, Rewards 200, 4.5, 50
Notable Trades
Elite sharp buying NO
A highly profitable sharp bettor with an 81% historical win rate is buying No on Ivan Cepeda Castro, supported by cross-market positioning in the same election event.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up about $663k lifetime.
- They bought $3,000 of No at 58¢, adding a clear view against Cepeda winning.
- Their history shows strong results at similar odds, averaging 39¢ entries with a large edge.
$3,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%
86% winner betting NO
Sharp 86% lifetime winner with strong cross-market history is buying No on Cepeda after positioning across 16 related Colombian election markets.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $357K lifetime.
- They are active across 16 markets in this election, suggesting a broader Colombia 2026 thesis.
- Buying No at 58¢ means they are betting Cepeda is less likely to win than the market implies.
$2,320 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
Profitable political sharp
Profitable wallet with an 81% resolved win rate made a $7k Yes buy that nearly matched the market's full 24h volume.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up about $1.5k lifetime.
- They bought $7,000 of Yes, nearly 90% of this market’s 24h volume.
- Entry at 42¢ implies they see meaningful upside in Cepeda’s 2026 chances.
$7,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 79%
Sharp election trader flips No
Sharp political bettor with an 86% win rate and strong lifetime profit is buying No after extensive cross-market positioning in the Colombian election.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up about $358k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 16 markets in this same election event.
- After previously holding Yes from 3¢, they have closed that position and are now buying No at 58¢.
$2,732 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
80% winner fading candidate
Proven profitable wallet with an 80% long-run win rate and strong edge is buying No on a Colombian presidential election market while also positioning across the event.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved positions and is up about $650k lifetime.
- They have a strong record beating market odds, with 922 wins across 1,147 resolved positions.
- They are also positioned across this election event, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
$1,405 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%
89% serial election bettor
Serial cross-market bettor with an 89% resolved win rate bought nearly $5k of No, more than a full day’s recent market volume, on a Colombian election market.
- This bettor has won 89% of 451 resolved markets across hundreds of events.
- They bought $4,960 of No, larger than the market’s measured 24h volume in the signal.
- Entry at 62¢ suggests a high-conviction view that Cepeda Castro does not win.
$4,960 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%
80% winner buying YES
A highly profitable wallet with an 80% lifetime win rate is effectively buying Yes at 41¢ and has related positioning across the same election event.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved bets and is up $638K lifetime.
- They are effectively buying Yes at 41¢ after 1,115 resolved positions.
- The wallet has $7.2K positioned across related Colombian election markets.
$2,364 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%
80% win-rate election sharp
A highly profitable sharp wallet with an 80% win rate and $623k P&L is buying No in a major 2026 Colombia election market, making this a credible copy-trade signal despite the modest ticket size.
- This bettor wins 80% of their trades and is up $623k across 1,069 resolved positions.
- They bought No at 61¢ in a major election market, so the trade likely reflects a real view rather than noise.
- This wallet is also trading related markets around the same event, suggesting a broader election thesis.
$1,212 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%
80% winner buying No
A highly profitable sharp wallet with an 80% win rate and $617k realized profit is buying No at 60¢ in this Colombia election market, making it a credible copy-trade despite modest size.
- This bettor wins 80% of their trades across 1,049 resolved markets and is up $617k lifetime
- They bought No at 60¢, implying they think Ivan Cepeda is overpriced near 40%
- The wallet is also trading related election markets with the same strong track record
$1,567 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%
87% win-rate event trader
A proven sharp bettor with an 87% win rate is expressing a broad event-level thesis across 16 related Colombia 2026 markets, and this trade is a fresh buy of No despite having previously closed the opposite side.
- This bettor wins 87% of their trades and is up about $351k lifetime
- They have traded 16 markets tied to this election event for $31.6k, showing a broad thesis rather than a one-off bet
- This is a fresh No position at 66¢ after previously closing a Yes bet, signaling a meaningful view change
$1,320 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $340,401
- 0xdbd0...2e83 — Yes, $140,962
- 0x54ce...9f80 — No, $63,777 (36% win rate)
- 0x682d...31ab — Yes, $41,986 (82% win rate)
- 0x3e0a...b9cc — Yes, $37,764 (72% win rate)
- 0x629b...995a — Yes, $26,549 (57% win rate)
- 0x3a8a...7699 — No, $19,000 (89% win rate)
- 0x7a5d...460f — Yes, $18,175 (89% win rate)
- 0x42d1...d745 — Yes, $17,580 (79% win rate)
- 0xc7e5...2d3a — No, $13,625 (81% win rate)
Related Theses
Cepeda loses Colombian presidency
Covers 16 related markets
Peru frontrunners all lose
Covers 3 related markets
