Part of: Colombia Presidential Election
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
49 smart money signals detected, totaling $159,229.
Categories: Politics, Global Elections, Elections, World, World Elections, Colombia Election, Colombia, Main Election, Macro Election 1, Rewards 200, 4.5, 50
Notable Trades
84% winner buying No
Sharp wallet with an 84% resolved win rate and $323k profit is buying No on a major Colombia election market despite recent Yes momentum.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $323,852 lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market political trader, active across 26 events with the same 84% win rate.
- Buying No at 77¢ goes against the recent Yes rally, implying they think Cepeda is overvalued.
$8,703 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%
Serial cross-market sharp
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 81% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought No on a liquid Colombian election market.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $54.8K lifetime.
- They have traded across 31 events and 45 related markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- Buying No at 89¢ implies a high-conviction view that Cepeda Castro will not win.
$2,279 on No | Wallet win rate: 79%
Profitable bettor buying Yes
A profitable 75% winner is effectively buying Yes on a momentum-driven Colombian election market while also positioning across related markets.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $3.3K lifetime.
- Selling No at 78¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 22¢.
- The market has moved toward Yes, up 8 points today on heavy volume.
$2,151 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%
84% winner buying No
Sharp wallet with an 84% resolved win rate and $323k profit is buying No on a major Colombia election market despite recent Yes momentum.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $323,852 lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market political trader, active across 26 events with the same 84% win rate.
- Buying No at 77¢ goes against the recent Yes rally, implying they think Cepeda is overvalued.
$2,128 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%
84% winner buying NO
Sharp 84% lifetime winner with strong cross-market history is buying No on a major political market, and the price has already moved in their favor.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $323,852 lifetime.
- They are a proven cross-market trader across 26 events with $403,422 deployed.
- They bought No around 77–78¢, and the market has already moved to 84¢.
$3,623 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%
84% winner buying No
Sharp wallet with an 84% resolved win rate and $323k profit is buying No on a major Colombia election market despite recent Yes momentum.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $323,852 lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market political trader, active across 26 events with the same 84% win rate.
- Buying No at 77¢ goes against the recent Yes rally, implying they think Cepeda is overvalued.
$1,495 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%
85% winner backing No
Sharp wallet with an 85% record and $131k lifetime profit is buying No despite this being a liquid market and modest-sized trade.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $131k lifetime.
- They bought No at 89¢, reinforcing the market view that Cepeda is unlikely to win.
- The wallet has placed 771 resolved bets, so the track record is unusually deep.
$1,068 on No | Wallet win rate: 85%
Profitable serial politics bettor
A highly profitable, high-volume political bettor is buying No, with linked-wallet corroboration and a long cross-market trading history.
- This bettor is up $1.18M lifetime across 1,379 resolved bets.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 118 events and nearly $8M in flagged volume.
- A linked wallet shares the same funder, adding corroboration to the No position.
$10,470 on No | Wallet win rate: 62%
79% winner fading candidate
Sharp wallet with a 79% resolved win rate and +$63,959 lifetime P&L is buying No on Ivan Cepeda while also positioning across a related Colombian election market.
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $63,959 lifetime.
- They bought No at 84¢ and have $5,859 positioned across two related Colombian election markets.
- This looks like renewed conviction after a prior No position on this same market.
$2,352 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
93% winner buying NO
Sharp profitable wallet with a 93% resolved-bet win rate is buying No on a liquid Colombia 2026 election market amid a volume spike and cross-market positioning.
- This bettor wins 93% of resolved bets and is up $12,079 lifetime.
- They are taking the 88¢ No side, implying strong confidence Cepeda Castro does not win.
- The market saw a 17.8x volume spike, and this wallet is also positioned across another related election market.
$1,012 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $1,164,829
- 0x8718...d6dd — Yes, $353,773
- 0xdbd0...2e83 — Yes, $162,507
- 0xe778...6da6 — Yes, $151,625
- 0x3cae...9060 — Yes, $71,787
- 0xf360...4d73 — Yes, $44,211
- 0x3e4a...5c76 — Yes, $42,416
- 0x085f...3b37 — Yes, $40,218
- 0x88e3...384e — Yes, $40,010 (37% win rate)
- 0x42d1...d745 — Yes, $27,397 (81% win rate)
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