Part of: James Fishback vote share in 2026 Florida Republican Governor Primary?

Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $9,789.

Categories: US Election, Politics, Elections, Governor Primaries, August 18 Primaries, Primaries, deprec USA Election, Florida, Midterms, USA Election

Notable Trades

Coordinated No flow before repricing

Three wallets coordinated around No amid a 19.8x volume spike and a sharp repricing, though much of the flow appears to be exiting existing Yes positions.

Three wallets moved $6,059 toward No as market volume surged to 19.8 times its historical average.
The market fell 46 percentage points in one day, indicating the coordinated trades preceded a major repricing.
The signal is partly profit-taking: two wallets sold existing Yes positions, while one bought $1,708 of No directly.

$6,059 on No

Serial sharp scaling into Yes

A highly profitable serial trader with an 84% win rate and substantial edge made a fresh $1,091 bet in a thin market, with Yes already rising.

This bettor wins 84% of trades across 207 resolved bets and is up $1.09 million.
They bought Yes at 42¢ in a thin market, accounting for 98% of its 24-hour volume.
Yes has risen 7.5% in one day and 11% over the week, reinforcing the directional signal.

$1,091 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

Profitable serial trader buys No

A highly experienced serial cross-market trader with 1,169 resolved bets and $1.14M profit is taking a fresh No position in a relatively thin market.

This bettor has won 72% of 1,169 resolved trades and earned about $1.14M.
The wallet has traded across 288 events and 427 markets, indicating extensive market experience.
A $1,063 No position was opened in a market with a 7-point bid-ask spread and only about $1,112 in 24-hour volume.

$1,063 on No | Wallet win rate: 73%

Profitable serial politics bettor

Profitable serial political bettor is adding to a No position on a thin market, but the move has already run well above their 46¢ entry.

This bettor has traded across 43 related markets and is up $238k lifetime.
They are adding to an existing No position in a thin market with only $3.6k traded in the last day.
Their 46¢ entry has already moved to 64¢, so the best copy zone is below the current price.

$1,576 on No | Wallet win rate: 65%

Top Holders

0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 13616767, $6,680
0x7bc1...8db4 — Outcome 73262720, $5,360 (71% win rate)
0x7131...29cc — Outcome 73262720, $4,567 (74% win rate)
0xe8c4...395d — Outcome 73262720, $3,882 (94% win rate)
0x69e7...d3b0 — Outcome 73262720, $3,300 (54% win rate)
0x0b97...0efe — Outcome 73262720, $3,270
0x84dc...92cb — Outcome 73262720, $3,160 (87% win rate)
0xb100...6461 — Outcome 73262720, $3,041 (62% win rate)
0x4a2b...af20 — Outcome 73262720, $3,000 (49% win rate)
0x23d8...0288 — Outcome 73262720, $2,647 (82% win rate)

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Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?

ResolvedJames Fishback vote share in 2026 Florida Republican Governor Primary?$9,789 tracked4 signalsUS ElectionPoliticsElectionsGovernor PrimariesAugust 18 PrimariesPrimariesdeprec USA ElectionFloridaMidtermsUSA Election

Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes James Fishback wins in the 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Price History — “No”

102¢

99¢

97¢

Alert entriesHigh-conviction