Part of: Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

This Polymarket market resolves Yes if Jared Kushner attends a qualifying formal, senior-level US-Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026; otherwise it resolves No. Current odds were not included in the supplied market data, which reports one smart-money signal and a whale adding to Yes.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $6,460.

Categories: Iran, Trump, US-Iran, Politics, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran, Iran Ceasefire

Notable Trades

Whale adding to Yes position

The trader added $6,460 to an existing $19,000 Yes position during a sharp volume spike, though their limited track record does not establish a clear edge.

  • Added $6,460 in two trades to an existing $19,000 Yes position at 34¢.
  • The alert detected an 8,607× volume spike, suggesting unusual activity around this market.
  • Their record is only 9 resolved bets, so it offers limited evidence of a proven edge.

$6,460 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%

Top Holders

  1. 0x2132...7657 — No, $3,079
  2. 0x7c3d...5c6b — Yes, $1,244 (53% win rate)
  3. 0xc8ab...6418 — Yes, $1,000 (49% win rate)
  4. 0xaad3...e666 — No, $583
  5. 0xa82b...5220 — Yes, $500 (46% win rate)
  6. 0xff06...2f60 — No, $390 (79% win rate)
  7. 0x0c3c...5eea — Yes, $380 (64% win rate)
  8. 0x07b9...0fbb — No, $350
  9. 0xeab6...d4c6 — Yes, $295
  10. 0x43b9...5db9 — Yes, $158 (86% win rate)

Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?$6,460 tracked1 signalIranTrumpUS-IranPoliticsPeace DealGeopoliticsIsrael x IranIran Ceasefire
Yes
34¢
No
66¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Price History — “No”
73¢
64¢
55¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

2026-10-22 06:24 UTC

$6,460 on Yes at 34¢

34¢→34¢