Part of: Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
This prediction market asks whether Jared Kushner will attend a formal, senior-level US-Iran peace talk or negotiating round by December 31, 2026. It resolves Yes only if he attends a qualifying official diplomatic meeting; otherwise, it resolves No. PolySpotter tracks $20,670 in smart-money activity, including a recent three-wallet No conviction cluster.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $20,670.
Categories: Iran, Trump, US-Iran, Politics, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran, Iran Ceasefire
Notable Trades
Three-wallet No conviction cluster
Three wallets simultaneously added $20.7K to No, creating a large coordinated position in a thin market despite only modest track records.
- Three wallets bought $20,670 of No within one second, exceeding the market’s reported liquidity.
- All three were already holding No at 80¢ and materially increased their positions, signaling continued conviction.
- The market has drifted 8.5% lower over the past week, while the coordinated buying implies these traders see No as undervalued.
$20,670 on No
Top Holders
- 0x5eb0...5012 — No, $3,064 (67% win rate)
- 0xc8ab...6418 — No, $2,680 (48% win rate)
- 0xf27d...e6d3 — Yes, $1,807 (24% win rate)
- 0x1ee9...197f — Yes, $1,048 (64% win rate)
- 0x6f36...89ca — Yes, $959
- 0x21ff...0d71 — Yes, $529
- 0x6ed7...0803 — No, $353 (82% win rate)
- 0xeab6...d4c6 — Yes, $299
- 0xb06c...b574 — Yes, $251 (90% win rate)
- 0xac4a...bf1e — Yes, $206
