Part of: Israel Election: Likud # of seats?

Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

This prediction market asks whether Likud will win between 25 and 29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election, expected on October 27, 2026. It resolves based on Likud’s official Knesset seat total, including seats from a joint list or merged party if applicable. PolySpotter is tracking $1,389 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal for this market.

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,389.

Categories: Elections, Israel, Israel Election, Politics, Likud, Global Elections, netanyahu, International Election Props

Notable Trades

Million-profit cross-market trader

A highly profitable serial cross-market trader bought No in a thin market before the price moved sharply in their favor.

  • This bettor has won 70% of 1,136 resolved trades and is up $1.05M lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader across 30 events, suggesting a repeatable thesis-driven style.
  • Their $1.4K No buy was large for this quiet market and the price has already jumped from 63¢ to 90¢.

$1,389 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%

Top Holders

  1. 0x6139...6b7a No, $1,038 (70% win rate)
  2. 0xa5ef...2966 No, $610
  3. 0x91ff...8f40 Yes, $476 (63% win rate)
  4. 0x66d6...50c7 Yes, $432 (55% win rate)
  5. 0x7495...7fcf Yes, $180
  6. 0xc602...7fc1 No, $179 (43% win rate)
  7. 0x9495...468f Yes, $146
  8. 0x03e1...e180 No, $100
  9. 0xb9f5...8f3c Yes, $100
  10. 0x4bfe...9257 Yes, $73

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Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

117dIsrael Election: Likud # of seats?$1,389 tracked1 signalElectionsIsraelIsrael ElectionPoliticsLikudGlobal ElectionsnetanyahuInternational Election Props
Yes
31¢
No
70¢

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).

Price History — “No
77¢
72¢
68¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

8d ago

$1,389 on No at 63¢

63¢70¢7¢

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