Part of: Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Will Majid Takht-Ravanchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

This Polymarket market asks whether Majid Takht-Ravanchi attends a formal, senior-level US-Iran diplomatic meeting between market creation and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Current odds were not included in the supplied data; PolySpotter tracks $1,752 in smart money and one signal, with a recent alert indicating a trader is scaling into No.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $6,378.

Categories: Iran, Trump, US-Iran, Politics, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran, Iran Ceasefire

Notable Trades

Serial event trader scaling into No

An established serial event trader is adding to a substantial No position while also placing significant bets across nine markets tied to the same event.

  • The trader has already built a sizable No position and added another $1,752 at 71¢.
  • They have placed $32,562 across nine markets in this event, with activity observed across multiple scans.
  • The wallet has a long trading history and is up about $160,000 overall.

$1,112 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%

Serial event trader scaling into No

An established serial event trader is adding to a substantial No position while also placing significant bets across nine markets tied to the same event.

  • The trader has already built a sizable No position and added another $1,752 at 71¢.
  • They have placed $32,562 across nine markets in this event, with activity observed across multiple scans.
  • The wallet has a long trading history and is up about $160,000 overall.

$1,822 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%

Serial event trader scaling into No

An established serial event trader is adding to a substantial No position while also placing significant bets across nine markets tied to the same event.

  • The trader has already built a sizable No position and added another $1,752 at 71¢.
  • They have placed $32,562 across nine markets in this event, with activity observed across multiple scans.
  • The wallet has a long trading history and is up about $160,000 overall.

$1,692 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%

Serial event trader scaling into No

An established serial event trader is adding to a substantial No position while also placing significant bets across nine markets tied to the same event.

  • The trader has already built a sizable No position and added another $1,752 at 71¢.
  • They have placed $32,562 across nine markets in this event, with activity observed across multiple scans.
  • The wallet has a long trading history and is up about $160,000 overall.

$1,752 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%

Top Holders

  1. 0xb615...73cf — No, $1,200
  2. 0xc8ab...6418 — No, $853 (49% win rate)
  3. 0x524d...4495 — Yes, $707 (77% win rate)
  4. 0xb1ca...1705 — Yes, $317 (49% win rate)
  5. 0x2779...239a — Yes, $304 (80% win rate)
  6. 0xeab6...d4c6 — Yes, $300
  7. 0xc7d0...1f8a — Yes, $261
  8. 0x1ee9...197f — No, $253 (64% win rate)
  9. 0xad53...ef24 — Yes, $204
  10. 0x7495...7fcf — No, $152 (18% win rate)

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Will Majid Takht-Ravanchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?$6,378 tracked4 signalsIranTrumpUS-IranPoliticsPeace DealGeopoliticsIsrael x IranIran Ceasefire
Yes
39¢
No
61¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Price History — “No”
76¢
67¢
58¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Majid Takht-Ravanchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

2026-10-25 16:15 UTC

$1,112 on No at 71¢

71¢→61¢↓10¢

Will Majid Takht-Ravanchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

2026-10-24 03:22 UTC

$1,822 on No at 71¢

71¢→61¢↓10¢

Will Majid Takht-Ravanchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

2026-10-23 16:16 UTC

$1,692 on No at 71¢

71¢→61¢↓10¢

Will Majid Takht-Ravanchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

2026-10-22 17:42 UTC

$1,752 on No at 71¢

71¢→61¢↓10¢

Related Theses