Part of: Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf will attend a qualifying senior-level US-Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026. It resolves Yes only if he participates in a formal, in-person negotiating round involving official senior representatives from both countries; otherwise, it resolves No. The market has $33,206 in tracked smart money and recent No-side conviction alerts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $66,822.

Categories: Iran, Trump, US-Iran, Politics, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran, Iran Ceasefire

Notable Trades

Four-wallet coordinated No exit

Four wallets moved $33,206 simultaneously in a thin market, creating an unusually large coordinated exit from No despite limited evidence of exceptional individual skill.

  • Four wallets sold No within four seconds, totaling $33,206—more than half of the market’s total volume.
  • The trades were roughly 155 times the reported $214 baseline 24-hour volume, signaling an abrupt shift in attention and positioning.
  • Three wallets had previously held No, so this may be coordinated profit-taking rather than a fresh, high-conviction Yes bet.

$33,206 on Yes

Four-wallet No conviction cluster

Four wallets simultaneously committed $33.6K to No in an exceptionally thin market, with several showing strong historical win rates.

  • Four wallets bought No within 21 seconds, committing $33,616—more than twice the market’s available liquidity.
  • The trade overwhelmed the market’s roughly $82 in recent daily volume, signaling unusually strong coordinated conviction.
  • Several participants have strong records, including 100% wins across 10 resolved bets and 89% across nine.

$33,616 on No

Top Holders

  1. 0xc8ab...6418 — No, $2,674 (49% win rate)
  2. 0x8f69...2923 — Yes, $731
  3. 0xac4a...bf1e — Yes, $610
  4. 0x215a...254c — Yes, $300
  5. 0xeab6...d4c6 — Yes, $294
  6. 0x38f5...6824 — Yes, $248 (45% win rate)
  7. 0xad53...ef24 — Yes, $232
  8. 0x9648...6825 — Yes, $176 (72% win rate)
  9. 0x819d...07f1 — No, $150 (70% win rate)
  10. 0xd9fe...db0d — Yes, $138

Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?$66,822 tracked2 signalsIranTrumpUS-IranPoliticsPeace DealGeopoliticsIsrael x IranIran Ceasefire
Yes
32¢
No
69¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Price History — “No”
78¢
70¢
61¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

2026-09-16 03:01 UTC

$33,206 on Yes at 19¢

19¢→32¢↑13¢

Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

2026-09-15 08:59 UTC

$33,616 on No at 82¢

82¢→69¢↓13¢