Part of: Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Will Nick Stewart attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

This Polymarket market asks whether Nick Stewart attends a formal, senior-level US-Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The provided metadata does not include current odds; it reports $2,897 in tracked smart money and one signal, with a recent alert noting a trader adding to No.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,897.

Categories: Iran, Trump, US-Iran, Politics, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran, Iran Ceasefire

Notable Trades

Serial event trader adding to No

The trader is adding to an existing No position and has traded across eight markets in this event, indicating sustained conviction despite no clear odds-adjusted edge.

  • The wallet has traded across 8 markets tied to this event, with $26,936 in total activity.
  • This $2,897 buy adds to an existing No position averaging 80¢; the wallet already has $9,683 invested in open No shares.
  • The wallet is up $144,295 lifetime, though its 63% win rate is below its 81¢ average winning price, so its track record alone does not establish an edge.

$2,897 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%

Top Holders

  1. 0xc7d0...1f8a — Yes, $1,403
  2. 0xc8ab...6418 — No, $1,326 (49% win rate)
  3. 0x38f5...6824 — No, $592 (45% win rate)
  4. 0xac4a...bf1e — Yes, $318
  5. 0x07b9...0fbb — No, $250
  6. 0xad53...ef24 — Yes, $215
  7. 0x6b0e...e3ea — Yes, $174
  8. 0x7558...970a — No, $107
  9. 0xe8fc...0d3b — Yes, $101
  10. 0xb41e...11fd — Yes, $101

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Will Nick Stewart attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?$2,897 tracked1 signalIranTrumpUS-IranPoliticsPeace DealGeopoliticsIsrael x IranIran Ceasefire
Yes
17¢
No
83¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Price History — “No”
86¢
73¢
60¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Nick Stewart attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

2026-10-14 21:58 UTC

$2,897 on No at 80¢

80¢→83¢↑3¢

Related Theses