Part of: Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Will Rafael Grossi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

This Polymarket market asks whether Rafael Grossi will attend a formal, senior-level diplomatic meeting between official US and Iranian representatives before December 31, 2026. It resolves Yes if he attends a qualifying round of talks and No otherwise; current odds are not included in the supplied market metadata.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $3,382.

Categories: Iran, Trump, US-Iran, Politics, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, Israel x Iran, Iran Ceasefire

Notable Trades

Profitable serial trader adding to No

A profitable, highly active cross-market trader is adding to an existing No position after deploying $37,710 across 10 markets tied to the same event.

  • This trader is up $161,520 lifetime and has traded across 118 events.
  • They have deployed $37,710 across 10 markets tied to this event and are adding to an existing No position.

$1,748 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%

Profitable serial trader adding to No

A profitable, highly active cross-market trader is adding to an existing No position after deploying $37,710 across 10 markets tied to the same event.

  • This trader is up $161,520 lifetime and has traded across 118 events.
  • They have deployed $37,710 across 10 markets tied to this event and are adding to an existing No position.

$1,634 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%

Top Holders

  1. 0xc8ab...6418 — No, $2,667 (49% win rate)
  2. 0xc7d0...1f8a — Yes, $1,252
  3. 0xd426...334a — Yes, $608 (51% win rate)
  4. 0xac4a...bf1e — Yes, $603
  5. 0xad53...ef24 — Yes, $479
  6. 0x6045...7304 — No, $350
  7. 0x8f69...2923 — Yes, $323
  8. 0xeab6...d4c6 — Yes, $300
  9. 0x7495...7fcf — Yes, $136 (18% win rate)
  10. 0xd9fe...db0d — No, $119

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Will Rafael Grossi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?$3,382 tracked2 signalsIranTrumpUS-IranPoliticsPeace DealGeopoliticsIsrael x IranIran Ceasefire
Yes
23¢
No
77¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Price History — “No”
83¢
73¢
63¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Rafael Grossi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

2026-10-24 16:22 UTC

$1,748 on No at 79¢

79¢→77¢↓2¢

Will Rafael Grossi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

2026-10-24 04:06 UTC

$1,634 on No at 79¢

79¢→77¢↓2¢

Related Theses