Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
16 smart money signals detected, totaling $59,960.
Categories: Peru, Politics, Elections, Global Elections, Peru Election
Notable Trades
87% win-rate election trader
A high-volume political trader with an 87% win rate is rotating out of a prior Yes bet and now buying No, signaling a notable thesis change on this Peru election market.
- This bettor wins 87% of their trades and is up $274k across 193 resolved markets
- They closed an earlier Yes position and just put $3.1k into No, showing a clear view change rather than routine holding
- The wallet has traded 72 markets across 34 related events, suggesting an experienced political market specialist
$3,100 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%
87% win-rate re-entry
An 87% win-rate serial political trader reopened a Yes position on this Peru election market after previously closing one, suggesting fresh conviction despite the price slipping after entry.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $273.7k across 193 settled bets.
- They trade across many related markets with a strong record: 72 markets across 34 events.
- They reopened a Yes position at 31¢ after previously closing one, signaling renewed conviction even as the market dipped to 28¢.
$1,238 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 87%
87% win-rate election bettor
A highly profitable 87% win-rate trader is re-entering this Peru election market via the opposite side, effectively buying Yes around 22¢ after already trading it before.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $273k across nearly $3.1M invested.
- The trade was a Sell No at 78¢, which is the same as buying Yes at 22¢ in a liquid political market.
- They trade across many related markets — 34 events and 72 markets — which suggests a broader election thesis rather than a random one-off bet.
$4,683 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 87%
87% win-rate re-entry
A highly profitable 87% win-rate trader is re-entering this Peru election market by effectively buying Yes around 22¢ after previously closing a Yes position, signaling renewed conviction on a liquid political market.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $273.5k across 193 settled bets.
- The trade is a sell of No at 78¢, which is effectively a buy of Yes at 22¢ near the current 20-21¢ market.
- They previously closed a Yes position and are now re-entering, showing fresh conviction in a major election market after a sharp 1-day price drop.
$5,471 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 87%
New whale buying dip
A 24-day-old wallet with repeated five-figure activity and positive early P&L made a fresh $9.5k directional bet in a liquid Peru election market by effectively buying Yes at 16¢ after a sharp price drop.
- This 24-day-old wallet has already triggered 27 large-bet alerts and is up about $9.3k early
- The trade effectively buys Yes at 16¢ after the market fell 25 points in a day
- A $9.5k position is meaningful versus roughly $17.4k of liquidity, showing real conviction
$9,454 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 63%
Profitable new wallet buying dip
A 24-day-old wallet with repeated large bets and early profitability is making a fresh $14.4k bullish bet on a major Peru election market after a sharp price drop.
- This 24-day-old wallet has already made 24 other large flagged bets and is up $9.3k early
- Both trades were sells of No at 84-86¢, which translates to buying Yes around 14-16¢
- The market is liquid and active, but this bettor is stepping in after a 25.5-point one-day drop
$14,360 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 63%
91% winner buys No
A bettor with a 91% win rate is taking a fresh cross-market position against López Aliaga at 82¢, even after a sharp move in a liquid Peru election market.
- This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades with 218 settled bets and $31k profit.
- They bought No at 82¢ while also trading a related Peru election market, suggesting a broader event view.
- The price dropped 13 points in under a minute, so this trade came during a fast repricing.
$1,527 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
Sharp cluster buying No
Three wallets all moved into No on this Peru election market, led by two bettors with 87%-91% win rates and one very new repeat wallet, pushing price sharply lower.
- Two proven bettors with 87% and 91% win rates joined the same No side within minutes.
- The group put about $4.3k to work and knocked the price 13 points in under a minute.
- One wallet is only about 20 hours old but has already made 4 flagged large bets, suggesting fresh conviction.
$4,256 on No
87% win-rate macro bettor
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 87% win rate put fresh money into No after a sharp move, making this a credible directional bet despite the modest size.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $272k across 193 settled bets.
- They placed a fresh $2.3k bet on No after trading 72 markets across 34 related events, showing a repeatable event-level approach.
- Bought at 58¢ after a fast 13-point drop, suggesting they still see value even after the move.
$2,339 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%
87% win-rate serial bettor
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 87% win rate put fresh size into No after a sharp price drop, suggesting a deliberate directional view rather than routine activity.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $272k across 193 settled markets.
- They trade across many related markets with a strong record: 33 events, 70 markets, and $366k deployed.
- They bought No at 73¢ after the market fell hard, adding a fresh bearish view after previously closing a small Yes position.
$1,825 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $225,435
- 0xecaa...77a9 — Yes, $87,283 (68% win rate)
- 0x39aa...583c — Yes, $42,231 (49% win rate)
- 0x4b1b...9af9 — Yes, $18,913
- 0xf983...7fb3 — Yes, $16,811 (50% win rate)
- 0xb1ca...1705 — No, $13,910 (100% win rate)
- 0x3e0a...b9cc — Yes, $12,372 (72% win rate)
- 0x35bb...009b — No, $11,042 (74% win rate)
- 0xb727...cd6f — Yes, $10,194 (0% win rate)
- 0x264c...baca — Yes, $10,000 (64% win rate)
