Part of: Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
This Polymarket market covers the November 3, 2026, U.S. Senate elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, including any potential runoffs. Outcomes are based on the exact set of listed states won by Republican candidates; current odds are not included in the provided market metadata.
This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by the Republican candidate, inclusive of any potential runoffs. Each listed outcome names the exact set of these states in which the Republican candidate wins. An outcome will resolve to "Yes" only if the Republican candidate wins every state it names and does not win any of the other states covered by this market. A state counts as not won by the Republican candidate if any other candidate wins it, including a Democratic, independent, or third-party candidate, or if its results cannot be determined by March 31, 2027. A candidate will be considered to represent the Republican Party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of the Republican Party. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered to represent the Republican Party regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
5 smart money signals detected, totaling $31,162.
Categories: Politics, election, US Election, Iowa Midterm, Ohio Midterm, Maine Midterm, Texas Midterm, Alaska Midterm, Kansas Midterm, Michigan Midterm, Senate
Notable Trades
Seven-wallet cluster adding to Yes
Seven wallets sharing a funder are linked to this market, and the trader is adding to an existing $200,517 Yes position despite an otherwise unremarkable record relative to typical winning entry prices.
- Seven wallets share a funder, with $3,500 in linked activity on this market.
- The trader added Yes shares while already holding a $200,517 position at a 25¢ average entry.
- The new purchase was at 35¢; the wallet’s 66% win rate alone does not establish a strong edge.
$3,100 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Seven-wallet cluster adding to Yes
Seven wallets sharing a funder are linked to this market, and the trader is adding to an existing $200,517 Yes position despite an otherwise unremarkable record relative to typical winning entry prices.
- Seven wallets share a funder, with $3,500 in linked activity on this market.
- The trader added Yes shares while already holding a $200,517 position at a 25¢ average entry.
- The new purchase was at 35¢; the wallet’s 66% win rate alone does not establish a strong edge.
$3,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Seven-wallet cluster adds to Yes
A seven-wallet funded cluster is buying Yes, while the lead bettor adds to a large existing position in a major 2026 Senate-election market.
- Seven wallets sharing a funder have put $5,540 on Yes in this alert.
- The lead bettor added at 34–35¢ to an existing $200,517 Yes position entered at 25¢.
- This is a liquid, high-volume political market; the bettor’s 66% record is notable, though their average winning entry price is high at 81¢.
$5,540 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
7-wallet funded cluster
A seven-wallet shared-funder cluster is buying Yes, and this profitable trader is adding to a substantial existing position, though the new trade is modest relative to market liquidity.
- Seven wallets share a funder, with linked activity totaling $2,040 on the same outcome.
- The bettor is adding to an existing Yes position with over $200,000 invested.
- The market is up 9% in a day, while Yes is available around 35¢.
$2,040 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Four-wallet Yes position buildup
Four wallets added $66,170 to Yes at 32¢, building on existing positions as the market rose 7% over the past day.
- Four wallets bought $66,170 of Yes at 32¢, all adding to positions they already held.
- The market is up 7% over the past day, aligning with the coordinated buying.
- One wallet in the cluster has traded across 128 events, though its 66% win rate alone does not establish an edge at its typical odds.
$16,982 on Yes
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $2,262,931
- 0xfea3...d227 — Yes, $999,721 (57% win rate)
- 0x6139...6b7a — Yes, $235,978 (71% win rate)
- 0xdbf1...86b5 — No, $222,785 (52% win rate)
- 0x7804...7025 — Yes, $218,983 (72% win rate)
- 0xf031...c80c — No, $218,981 (89% win rate)
- 0x23d8...0288 — Yes, $199,467 (81% win rate)
- 0xe234...304a — Yes, $190,517 (66% win rate)
- 0x614d...1546 — Yes, $133,635 (66% win rate)
- 0x819d...07f1 — Yes, $100,000 (70% win rate)
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