Part of: Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?
Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by the Republican candidate, inclusive of any potential runoffs. Each listed outcome names the exact set of these states in which the Republican candidate wins. An outcome will resolve to "Yes" only if the Republican candidate wins every state it names and does not win any of the other states covered by this market. A state counts as not won by the Republican candidate if any other candidate wins it, including a Democratic, independent, or third-party candidate, or if its results cannot be determined by March 31, 2027. A candidate will be considered to represent the Republican Party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of the Republican Party. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered to represent the Republican Party regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
4 smart money signals detected, totaling $10,889.
Categories: Politics, election, US Election, Iowa Midterm, Ohio Midterm, Maine Midterm, Texas Midterm, Alaska Midterm, Kansas Midterm, Michigan Midterm, Senate
Notable Trades
Seven-wallet shared-funder cluster
Seven wallets sharing a funder are associated with roughly $4,034 of positioning, making the coordinated cluster notable despite the trader's win rate not clearly exceeding their average winning odds.
- Seven linked wallets are associated with about $4,034 in trades on this market.
- The featured trade sells Yes at 10¢, equivalent to buying No at 90¢; the wallet's 66% win rate is not clearly above its average winning price.
$4,034 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%
Eight-wallet funded cluster adds to No
Eight wallets sharing a funder have accumulated $1,740 on No, with the alerted trader adding to an existing position in a highly liquid market.
- Eight wallets linked by a shared funder are positioned on the same market, with $1,740 in detected bets.
- The trader is adding to an existing No position, buying at 87¢ while No is priced around 86¢.
- The wallet has a large betting history, but its 55% win rate and small lifetime profit do not show a clear edge on their own.
$1,800 on No | Wallet win rate: 55%
Seven-wallet cluster betting No
A seven-wallet shared-funder cluster and a highly active, profitable trader are aligned on No, though the trader's win rate does not clearly beat their average entry odds.
- Seven wallets sharing a funder are aligned on this market, with about $4,574 in combined bets.
- This trader has made 333 resolved trades and is up $292,115 lifetime, though their 66% win rate alone does not establish an edge.
$3,314 on No | Wallet win rate: 66%
Eight-wallet funded cluster adds to No
Eight wallets sharing a funder have accumulated $1,740 on No, with the alerted trader adding to an existing position in a highly liquid market.
- Eight wallets linked by a shared funder are positioned on the same market, with $1,740 in detected bets.
- The trader is adding to an existing No position, buying at 87¢ while No is priced around 86¢.
- The wallet has a large betting history, but its 55% win rate and small lifetime profit do not show a clear edge on their own.
$1,740 on No | Wallet win rate: 55%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $1,648,511
- 0xf031...c80c — Yes, $425,729 (89% win rate)
- 0x498d...ddd4 — Yes, $300,000 (63% win rate)
- 0x44c1...ebc1 — Yes, $261,316 (62% win rate)
- 0xfea3...d227 — Yes, $190,793 (57% win rate)
- 0xc301...66aa — Yes, $111,427 (71% win rate)
- 0x9aeb...2729 — Yes, $100,000 (67% win rate)
- 0xf4c9...f88c — No, $67,947 (68% win rate)
- 0x712f...9fe6 — Yes, $51,030 (56% win rate)
- 0xf68a...5b1b — Yes, $30,090 (56% win rate)
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