Part of: Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by...?

Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?

This Polymarket asks whether the entire municipality of Chasiv Yar will be shaded red on the ISW map by December 31, 2026; it resolves on January 1, 2027 at 04:59 UTC. Current odds were not included in the available market data. PolySpotter tracks $1,000 in smart money and one signal, with a profitable trader recently adding to No.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Chasiv Yar, Donetsk Oblast, (48.589446° N, 37.831430° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Chasiv Yar will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. If all area within the municipality is shaded under a qualifying layer, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of unshaded area along the border of the municipality, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $5,700.

Categories: Geopolitics, Ukraine Map

Notable Trades

Profitable serial cross-market trader

A profitable serial cross-market trader is adding to an existing No position, with recent price movement also favoring No.

  • This trader has won 71% of 201 resolved bets and is up $39,062 overall.
  • They added $1,000 to an existing No position after covering 29 events across 35 markets.
  • No is priced at 72¢, and the market has moved in that direction over the past day.

$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%

Profitable serial cross-market trader

A profitable serial cross-market trader is adding to an existing No position, with recent price movement also favoring No.

  • This trader has won 71% of 201 resolved bets and is up $39,062 overall.
  • They added $1,000 to an existing No position after covering 29 events across 35 markets.
  • No is priced at 72¢, and the market has moved in that direction over the past day.

$1,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%

Profitable bettor adding to No

A bettor with a positive but not clearly exceptional track record added $1,700 to No in a thin market, a substantial trade alongside a detected price move.

  • The bettor added $1,700 to an existing No position, bringing their investment on that side to about $4,239.
  • The new trade was nearly half the market’s 24-hour volume, with only about $6,026 in liquidity.
  • Their 70% win rate and $24,236 lifetime profit are positive, though their average winning price of 70¢ does not show a clear edge by itself.

$1,700 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%

Profitable trader adding to No

A highly profitable, experienced trader is adding to an existing No position in a relatively quiet geopolitical market.

  • This bettor is up $275,275 across 701 resolved bets and has a 60% win rate.
  • The $1,000 buy adds to an existing No position; the entry was 38¢ and No is now 44¢.
  • The market had only $3,455 in 24-hour volume, making the sizable position notable.

$1,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 60%

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Russia won't fully capture Chasiv Yar

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Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?

Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by...?$5,700 tracked4 signalsGeopoliticsUkraine Map
Yes
43¢
No
57¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Chasiv Yar, Donetsk Oblast, (48.589446° N, 37.831430° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Chasiv Yar will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. If all area within the municipality is shaded under a qualifying layer, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of unshaded area along the border of the municipality, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Price History — “No”
75¢
59¢
42¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?

2026-10-31 07:48 UTC

$2,000 on No at 72¢

72¢→57¢↓15¢

Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?

2026-10-25 23:33 UTC

$1,000 on No at 72¢

72¢→57¢↓15¢

Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?

2026-09-30 16:48 UTC

$1,700 on No at 67¢

67¢→57¢↓10¢

Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?

2026-09-27 16:26 UTC

$1,000 on No at 38¢

38¢→57¢↑19¢

Related Theses