A wallet created about 1 hour earlier put $4.7k on No in its first flagged trade. The bet is sizable versus about $10k in market liquidity, suggesting real conviction rather than a small test. Entry at 79¢ means the bettor is backing the 80% side after Yes has drifted down over the past week.

Part of: Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $9,812.

Categories: Ukraine, Politics, World, Geopolitics, Russia Capture, Ukraine Map

Notable Trades

New wallet backs No

A brand-new wallet placed a meaningful $4.7k No bet on a moderately thin war-resolution market, making the fresh conviction worth monitoring despite no track record.

A wallet created about 1 hour earlier put $4.7k on No in its first flagged trade.
The bet is sizable versus about $10k in market liquidity, suggesting real conviction rather than a small test.
Entry at 79¢ means the bettor is backing the 80% side after Yes has drifted down over the past week.

$4,732 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%

Profitable conflict-market bettor

A profitable 150-bet wallet is adding a meaningful No position on a low-volume Russia capture market, with correlated positioning across the same event.

This bettor has a strong 150-bet record, winning 67% and up about $9K lifetime.
The $4K No buy was 2.7x the market’s 24-hour volume, a large move for a quiet market.
They are also positioned across another related market, suggesting a broader thesis.

$4,049 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%

New wallet buying thin YES

A repeat-flagged new wallet is taking a meaningful Yes position in a thin, wide-spread Ukraine war market where informed edge is plausible.

A new wallet has now made $2.0k in flagged bets, including $1.0k on Yes here.
The market is thin, with only $3.2k of liquidity and a wide 5¢ spread, so this is a meaningful position.
Entry at 33¢ implies the bettor sees upside versus current Yes odds around 34%.

$1,031 on Yes

Top Holders

0x15af...9e32 — Outcome 92557339, $8,551
0x129d...7d2d — Outcome 92557339, $8,405 (57% win rate)
0x0a6d...1d0a — Outcome 92557339, $3,334
0x4a2b...af20 — Outcome 92557339, $3,000 (49% win rate)
0xa0c5...cf60 — Outcome 92557339, $2,798
0x55db...2031 — Outcome 92557339, $2,000 (55% win rate)
0xfffe...4e6c — Outcome 92557339, $1,164
0xf2a6...24b8 — Outcome 92557339, $768
0x0122...159c — Outcome 92557339, $676
0x87cd...2fa9 — Outcome 92557339, $670

Related Theses

Covers 3 related markets

Kostyantynivka dates are mispriced

Covers 2 related markets

Israel-Iran ceasefire will hold

Covers 3 related markets

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?

ResolvedWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?$9,812 tracked3 signalsUkrainePoliticsWorldGeopoliticsRussia CaptureUkraine Map

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kostyantynivka railroad station located on Pravoberezhna vulytsia by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka3.jpg Train Station Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka2.jpg Kostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka1.jpg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/hZ6ch5jVRvkNFY317 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.