Part of: Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $4,970.
Categories: Ukraine, Politics, World, Geopolitics, Russia Capture, Ukraine Map
Notable Trades
Profitable cross-market war bettor
Profitable serial cross-market bettor is buying No on a thin Ukraine-war market while also positioning across related markets.
- This bettor has a long track record across 149 events and is up $212K lifetime.
- They have $29K positioned across 5 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- This $1.97K buy was larger than the market’s entire 24h volume, in a market with under $1K liquidity.
$1,970 on No | Wallet win rate: 61%
13-0 bettor buying NO
A 13-0 profitable wallet made a meaningful $3k NO bet on a thin Ukraine-war market and has related cross-market positioning.
- This bettor has won all 13 resolved trades and is up about $13k lifetime.
- The $3k NO buy was over half of the market’s 24h volume, showing strong conviction in a thin market.
- They have $8k positioned across two related markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
$3,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%
Top Holders
- 0x15af...9e32 — Outcome 29809011, $5,450
- 0x5666...c630 — Outcome 29809011, $2,535
- 0x7727...15a4 — Outcome 29809011, $2,266 (58% win rate)
- 0x129d...7d2d — Outcome 29809011, $1,970 (57% win rate)
- 0xc392...511b — Outcome 29809011, $1,017
- 0x64ca...3d5d — Outcome 29809011, $500
- 0x23ed...aebc — Outcome 29809011, $371
- 0x07b9...0fbb — Outcome 29809011, $350
- 0x8fe7...4f20 — Outcome 29809011, $319 (66% win rate)
- 0x01da...4b7b — Outcome 29809011, $312
Related Theses
US-Iran talks won't happen
Covers 7 related markets
