What has to happen for this market to resolve Yes?

It resolves Yes if Steve Witkoff signs a qualifying written agreement in an official capacity, and both the U.S. and Iran are parties to that agreement, before the deadline.

When does the Steve Witkoff U.S.-Iran deal market resolve?

The market deadline is July 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, with the listed resolution timestamp corresponding to August 1, 2026 at 03:59 UTC.

Does the agreement need to be signed directly by U.S. and Iranian representatives?

No. The rules state that the United States and Iran must both be parties to the agreement, but representatives of either or both countries do not necessarily need to sign it directly.

How much smart money activity is tracked on this market?

PolySpotter currently tracks $3,013 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal for this market, including activity from a profitable serial event trader.

Part of: Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?

Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Q: What is the Steve Witkoff U.S.-Iran deal prediction market about?

This market predicts whether Steve Witkoff will sign a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by the July 31, 2026 deadline.

This Polymarket asks whether Steve Witkoff, acting in an official capacity, will sign a written agreement involving both the United States and Iran by July 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. PolySpotter tracks live prediction market odds and smart money activity for this U.S.-Iran deal market, including $3,013 in tracked smart money and 1 recent signal.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity. The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify. The listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $3,013.

Categories: Trump, Peace Deal, geopolitcs, Iran, U.S. x Iran, Politics

Notable Trades

Profitable serial event trader

Profitable serial cross-market trader with $732k lifetime profit bought Yes on a niche political market before a sharp move from 5–10¢ to 12¢.

This bettor has a long record across politics-style event markets, winning 58% of 188 resolved bets and earning $732k lifetime profit.
They bought $3k of Yes at 5–10¢, and the market has already moved to 12¢ after the trade.
This wallet has traded 121 related event markets across 54 events, suggesting a repeatable thesis-driven style.

$3,013 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 58%