Part of: Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?

Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $3,013.

Categories: Trump, Peace Deal, geopolitcs, Iran, U.S. x Iran, Politics

Notable Trades

Profitable serial event trader

Profitable serial cross-market trader with $732k lifetime profit bought Yes on a niche political market before a sharp move from 5–10¢ to 12¢.

  • This bettor has a long record across politics-style event markets, winning 58% of 188 resolved bets and earning $732k lifetime profit.
  • They bought $3k of Yes at 5–10¢, and the market has already moved to 12¢ after the trade.
  • This wallet has traded 121 related event markets across 54 events, suggesting a repeatable thesis-driven style.

$3,013 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 57%

Top Holders

  1. 0x696a...e23a Outcome 55323020, $2,518 (89% win rate)
  2. 0xc4a8...5943 Outcome 55323020, $2,089
  3. 0x69c9...3b29 Outcome 55323020, $2,006 (75% win rate)
  4. 0xc7d0...1f8a Outcome 55323020, $1,761
  5. 0x828e...c21b Outcome 55323020, $1,546
  6. 0x6b0e...e3ea Outcome 55323020, $1,358
  7. 0x9ad0...bf3d Outcome 55323020, $1,326 (67% win rate)
  8. 0x5533...51ba Outcome 55323020, $795
  9. 0x06db...5244 Outcome 55323020, $350
  10. 0x9aac...3dc6 Outcome 55323020, $171

Related Theses

US-Iran meeting around June 20

Covers 11 related markets

Iran deal after July

Covers 11 related markets

WTI peaks near $80 in July

Covers 7 related markets

US-Iran deal announced soon

Covers 8 related markets

Covers 3 related markets

Crude oil tops $175 by June

Covers 4 related markets

Trump refuses Iran concessions

Covers 2 related markets

Iran ceasefire survives late May

Covers 5 related markets

Covers 7 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

ResolvedWho will sign U.S. x Iran deal?$3,013 tracked1 signalTrumpPeace DealgeopolitcsIranU.S. x IranPolitics

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity. The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify. The listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History — “No
102¢
99¢
97¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

64d ago

$3,013 on Yes at 7¢

Related Theses

US-Iran meeting around June 20
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Iran deal after July
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WTI peaks near $80 in July
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US-Iran deal announced soon
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Crude oil tops $175 by June
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Trump refuses Iran concessions
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Iran ceasefire survives late May
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