Part of: US-Iran deal text released by...?

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?

This prediction market asks whether any portion of the written US-Iran agreement announced on June 14, 2026 will be made widely available to the public by 11:59 PM ET on June 19. It resolves after the June 19 deadline, with smart money tracking showing $1,037 across 1 signal, including a contrarian No buy from an 88% winner.

On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any portion of the text of the agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026 is made widely available to the public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The “agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026” includes any later-modified version that is publicly identified by credible reporting as a successor version of the same agreement. The “text of the agreement” refers to the actual textual wording of the written agreement, whether released through images of the physical or electronic agreement text, or through alternative verbatim disclosures of the text (e.g., publication of the text of the agreement in a news article). Public disclosures of the deal’s contents, without the public disclosure of the actual text of the agreement, will not qualify. Public disclosures of text from draft proposals prior to the version of the agreement announced on June 14, 2026, will not qualify. A qualifying portion of the text of this agreement may be made widely available to the public by any means, regardless of whether it is released officially, leaked, or otherwise disclosed. However, such released text must be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to be genuine text of the agreement. A joint statement or similar document will qualify only if it contains verbatim text of the written agreement itself or is itself the operative written agreement between the United States and Iran. A statement that merely announces or characterizes the agreement will not qualify. The resolution sources will be official information from the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,037.

Categories: Geopolitics, Peace Deal, U.S. x Iran, Iran, Politics

Notable Trades

88% winner buying contrarian No

Surfaced due to sharp-wallet override: a highly profitable 88% lifetime bettor bought No despite only a modest cross-market signal.

  • This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up about $116K lifetime.
  • They are taking the unpopular No side at 14¢ while the market prices Yes near 89%.
  • The wallet has also traded another market in the same event, suggesting a broader US-Iran agreement thesis.

$1,037 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%

Top Holders

  1. 0x696a...e23a No, $7,234 (88% win rate)
  2. 0xdf17...97d1 Yes, $5,505 (54% win rate)
  3. 0xc8ab...6418 Yes, $3,970 (47% win rate)
  4. 0xeb22...808a No, $2,500 (36% win rate)
  5. 0x4344...f90d No, $2,098 (61% win rate)
  6. 0xfc00...0be0 Yes, $1,500 (95% win rate)
  7. 0x68c2...1711 Yes, $1,124 (55% win rate)
  8. 0x6b02...e5fc No, $1,115 (11% win rate)
  9. 0x7495...7fcf No, $1,061
  10. 0xaf23...aa95 Yes, $1,054 (63% win rate)

Related Theses

Iran ceasefire will hold

Covers 2 related markets

US-Iran agreement text delayed

Covers 2 related markets

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?

2dUS-Iran deal text released by...?$1,037 tracked1 signalGeopoliticsPeace DealU.S. x IranIranPolitics
Yes
85¢
No
15¢

On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any portion of the text of the agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026 is made widely available to the public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The “agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026” includes any later-modified version that is publicly identified by credible reporting as a successor version of the same agreement. The “text of the agreement” refers to the actual textual wording of the written agreement, whether released through images of the physical or electronic agreement text, or through alternative verbatim disclosures of the text (e.g., publication of the text of the agreement in a news article). Public disclosures of the deal’s contents, without the public disclosure of the actual text of the agreement, will not qualify. Public disclosures of text from draft proposals prior to the version of the agreement announced on June 14, 2026, will not qualify. A qualifying portion of the text of this agreement may be made widely available to the public by any means, regardless of whether it is released officially, leaked, or otherwise disclosed. However, such released text must be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to be genuine text of the agreement. A joint statement or similar document will qualify only if it contains verbatim text of the written agreement itself or is itself the operative written agreement between the United States and Iran. A statement that merely announces or characterizes the agreement will not qualify. The resolution sources will be official information from the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes
96¢
77¢
58¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?

1h ago

$1,037 on No at 14¢

14¢15¢1¢

Related Theses