Part of: Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify. For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify. Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice. Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $5,629.
Categories: Oil, Strait of Hormuz, Iran, Geopolitics, Naval, U.S. x Iran
Notable Trades
91% winner buying Yes
Despite only a weak low-activity signal, this is a proven sharp wallet with a 91% resolved win rate taking a Yes-equivalent position in a quiet market.
- This bettor has won 91% of 207 resolved bets and is up $7.6K lifetime.
- The trade is effectively a Buy Yes at 11¢, against a current market near 10¢.
- Their $4.6K trade was larger than the market’s entire 24h volume, showing conviction in a quiet market.
$4,604 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%
86% serial event trader
A very high-volume serial cross-market trader with an 86% resolved-bet win rate bought Yes at 12¢ before the market doubled, though the edge is less copyable now after the move.
- This bettor has won 86% of 1,081 resolved bets across 217 markets.
- They bought Yes at 12¢ before the market moved to about 24¢.
- The market is up 13.5 points in one day, confirming strong momentum in their direction.
$1,025 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%
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