Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify. For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify. Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice. Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,067.
Categories: Oil, Strait of Hormuz, Iran, Geopolitics, Naval, U.S. x Iran
Notable Trades
Serial cross-market winner buying NO
Serial cross-market trader with a 75% resolved-bet record bought No in a thin geopolitical market, and the position has already moved strongly in their favor.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $161k lifetime.
- They have traded across 94 events and 185 related markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- Bought No at 63¢ in a quiet market, and the price has already moved to 72¢.
$1,067 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%
Top Holders
- 0xa8c6...44e8 — No, $1,633 (75% win rate)
- 0x6992...6c1d — Yes, $1,000 (34% win rate)
- 0xfe41...9f23 — Yes, $230
- 0x7df6...ac3b — No, $170
- 0x50a7...f6b9 — Yes, $161
- 0x24bb...34f7 — Yes, $130
- 0x830b...0a93 — Yes, $100
- 0xf5bb...bdb8 — Yes, $69
- 0x04c3...9a7c — No, $53
- 0x74bf...2a6e — No, $46 (70% win rate)
