Part of: US announces blockade on Iran by...?
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?
This prediction market tracks whether the United States publicly and officially announces a naval blockade on Iran, ships traveling to or from Iranian ports, or ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by the resolution deadline. The market resolves on December 31, 2026, and PolySpotter is tracking $8,357 in smart money activity, including a recent signal from a proven bettor buying “No.”
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $10,857.
Categories: Iran, Blockade, U.S. x Iran, Trump, shipping, Politics, Peace Deal, Geopolitics
Notable Trades
Three-wallet geopolitical sweep
Three wallets bought $8.4k of Yes in a coordinated geopolitical move that helped push the market sharply higher, including one wallet with a 93% resolved win rate.
- Three wallets bought $8.4k of Yes in the same burst, with entries from 58¢ to 81¢ before the market jumped to 99¢.
- One buyer has won 93% of 387 resolved bets and is up $72k lifetime.
- The market is up 41 points in a day, matching the one-sided flow into Yes.
$8,357 on Yes
Proven bettor buying No
Surfaced despite a weak low-activity signal because the buyer has a strong long-term record and is taking a fresh $2.5k No position in a geopolitics market.
- This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $22k lifetime.
- They put $2.5k on No at 64¢ in a market with under $10k 24h volume.
- The market has moved toward No today, with Yes down 10.5 points.
$2,500 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%
Top Holders
- 0x9ca1...13b5 — Outcome 89486586, $9,957 (60% win rate)
- 0x0099...386e — Outcome 89486586, $4,000 (58% win rate)
- 0x3d14...ee01 — Outcome 89486586, $2,600 (69% win rate)
- 0xbaa2...2c73 — Outcome 89486586, $2,168 (64% win rate)
- 0x5739...5f1a — Outcome 89486586, $2,000 (55% win rate)
- 0xfb59...83f9 — Outcome 89486586, $1,958 (56% win rate)
- 0xdc70...cc56 — Outcome 89486586, $1,757 (75% win rate)
- 0xf42f...a6a7 — Outcome 89486586, $1,500 (74% win rate)
- 0xac4a...bf1e — Outcome 89486586, $1,382
- 0x83f8...f751 — Outcome 89486586, $1,315
Related Theses
Iran keeps airspace open
Covers 2 related markets
Iran deal arrives in September
Covers 2 related markets
No US blockade of Iran
Covers 2 related markets
