Part of: US announces blockade on Iran by...?

Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?

This prediction market tracks whether the United States publicly and officially announces a naval blockade on Iran, ships traveling to or from Iranian ports, or ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by the resolution deadline. The market resolves on December 31, 2026, and PolySpotter is tracking $8,357 in smart money activity, including a recent signal from a proven bettor buying “No.”

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $10,857.

Categories: Iran, Blockade, U.S. x Iran, Trump, shipping, Politics, Peace Deal, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

Three-wallet geopolitical sweep

Three wallets bought $8.4k of Yes in a coordinated geopolitical move that helped push the market sharply higher, including one wallet with a 93% resolved win rate.

  • Three wallets bought $8.4k of Yes in the same burst, with entries from 58¢ to 81¢ before the market jumped to 99¢.
  • One buyer has won 93% of 387 resolved bets and is up $72k lifetime.
  • The market is up 41 points in a day, matching the one-sided flow into Yes.

$8,357 on Yes

Proven bettor buying No

Surfaced despite a weak low-activity signal because the buyer has a strong long-term record and is taking a fresh $2.5k No position in a geopolitics market.

  • This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $22k lifetime.
  • They put $2.5k on No at 64¢ in a market with under $10k 24h volume.
  • The market has moved toward No today, with Yes down 10.5 points.

$2,500 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%

Top Holders

  1. 0x9ca1...13b5 Outcome 89486586, $9,957 (60% win rate)
  2. 0x0099...386e Outcome 89486586, $4,000 (58% win rate)
  3. 0x3d14...ee01 Outcome 89486586, $2,600 (69% win rate)
  4. 0xbaa2...2c73 Outcome 89486586, $2,168 (64% win rate)
  5. 0x5739...5f1a Outcome 89486586, $2,000 (55% win rate)
  6. 0xfb59...83f9 Outcome 89486586, $1,958 (56% win rate)
  7. 0xdc70...cc56 Outcome 89486586, $1,757 (75% win rate)
  8. 0xf42f...a6a7 Outcome 89486586, $1,500 (74% win rate)
  9. 0xac4a...bf1e Outcome 89486586, $1,382
  10. 0x83f8...f751 Outcome 89486586, $1,315

Related Theses

Iran keeps airspace open

Covers 2 related markets

Iran deal arrives in September

Covers 2 related markets

No US blockade of Iran

Covers 2 related markets

Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?

129dUS announces blockade on Iran by...?$10,857 tracked2 signalsIranBlockadeU.S. x IranTrumpshippingPoliticsPeace DealGeopolitics

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the imposition of a naval blockade on Iran, or on ships traveling to or from Iranian ports, or on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The announcement need not specify the full scope, duration, or enforcement parameters of the blockade. An announcement of a partial or targeted blockade qualifies, including one limited to specific vessel categories, port areas, or Iranian coastal zones, provided it clearly announces the interdiction of Iranian maritime traffic as an unconditional policy. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present implementation of a blockade, previously-unannounced prior implementation of a blockade, or definitive decision to implement a blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe a blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of a blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: - Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; - Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; - Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement a blockade; - Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and - Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional imposition rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a blockade is ever actually implemented. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.

Notable Trades

Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?

41d ago

$8,357 on Yes at 71¢

Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?

59d ago

$2,500 on No at 64¢

Related Theses