Part of: US announces blockade on Iran by...?

Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?

This Polymarket asks whether the U.S. government or an authorized representative will publicly and officially announce a naval blockade on Iran, ships traveling to or from Iranian ports, or ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. It resolves at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026; PolySpotter currently tracks $2,500 in smart money activity, including a recent proven-bettor signal buying “No.”

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the imposition of a naval blockade on Iran, or on ships traveling to or from Iranian ports, or on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The announcement need not specify the full scope, duration, or enforcement parameters of the blockade. An announcement of a partial or targeted blockade qualifies, including one limited to specific vessel categories, port areas, or Iranian coastal zones, provided it clearly announces the interdiction of Iranian maritime traffic as an unconditional policy. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present implementation of a blockade, previously-unannounced prior implementation of a blockade, or definitive decision to implement a blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe a blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of a blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: - Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; - Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; - Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement a blockade; - Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and - Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional imposition rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a blockade is ever actually implemented. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,500.

Categories: Iran, Blockade, U.S. x Iran, Trump, shipping, Politics, Peace Deal, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

Proven bettor buying No

Surfaced despite a weak low-activity signal because the buyer has a strong long-term record and is taking a fresh $2.5k No position in a geopolitics market.

  • This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $22k lifetime.
  • They put $2.5k on No at 64¢ in a market with under $10k 24h volume.
  • The market has moved toward No today, with Yes down 10.5 points.

$2,500 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%

Top Holders

  1. 0x162f...798d No, $23,746 (69% win rate)
  2. 0xc8ab...6418 Yes, $17,301 (47% win rate)
  3. 0x93fb...3e4a Yes, $15,761 (38% win rate)
  4. 0xd44e...67e2 No, $11,595 (61% win rate)
  5. 0x5666...c630 Yes, $6,000 (55% win rate)
  6. 0x00c0...4610 Yes, $5,424
  7. 0x165e...f5aa No, $3,367 (76% win rate)
  8. 0x9d73...216b No, $2,300 (71% win rate)
  9. 0xe7cb...d447 Yes, $2,091 (76% win rate)
  10. 0x8c57...f939 No, $2,049 (69% win rate)

Related Theses

Iran keeps airspace open

Covers 2 related markets

Iran deal arrives in September

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No US blockade of Iran

Covers 2 related markets

Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?

182dUS announces blockade on Iran by...?$2,500 tracked1 signalIranBlockadeU.S. x IranTrumpshippingPoliticsPeace DealGeopolitics
Yes
32¢
No
69¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the imposition of a naval blockade on Iran, or on ships traveling to or from Iranian ports, or on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The announcement need not specify the full scope, duration, or enforcement parameters of the blockade. An announcement of a partial or targeted blockade qualifies, including one limited to specific vessel categories, port areas, or Iranian coastal zones, provided it clearly announces the interdiction of Iranian maritime traffic as an unconditional policy. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present implementation of a blockade, previously-unannounced prior implementation of a blockade, or definitive decision to implement a blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe a blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of a blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: - Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; - Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; - Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement a blockade; - Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and - Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional imposition rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a blockade is ever actually implemented. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.

Price History — “No
77¢
65¢
53¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?

6d ago

$2,500 on No at 64¢

64¢69¢5¢

Related Theses