US announces blockade on Iran by...?
23 signals across 3 markets · $90,587 tracked · resolves Dec 31, 2026
This event tracks Polymarket odds on whether the United States will officially announce a naval blockade involving Iran, Iranian ports, or the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026. The market is currently a Yes/No geopolitical outcome, with PolySpotter tracking smart money activity, including a recent signal from a proven bettor buying No.
Markets (3)
Top trades across all markets
- 7-wallet Yes breakout
Strong coordinated Yes buying from seven wallets coincided with a 224x volume spike and a ~50-point price breakout on a geopolitically plausible market.
$28,357Score: 8.6 - 17-wallet sharp cluster adding YES
A proven profitable wallet within a 17-wallet funded cluster is adding to a sizable Yes position on a geopolitical market.
$1,844Wallet win rate: 94%Score: 7.9 - 4-wallet geopolitical surge
Four-wallet one-sided Yes cluster drove a 998x volume spike and 31-point price jump, with a 93% winning wallet adding to an existing position, though the current 98¢ price is too high to chase.
$15,149Score: 7.3 - Three-wallet geopolitical sweep
Three wallets bought $8.4k of Yes in a coordinated geopolitical move that helped push the market sharply higher, including one wallet with a 93% resolved win rate.
$8,357Score: 6.8 - 80% win-rate geopolitics bettor
Proven profitable wallet with 80% win rate and extensive cross-market history is buying Yes again on a geopolitics market, though the individual trade size is modest.
$1,051Wallet win rate: 76%Score: 5.7 - Elite 82% bettor adding
Proven high-edge wallet with an 82% long-term win rate is adding to a sizable Yes position amid strong recent price momentum.
$3,837Wallet win rate: 82%Score: 5.4 - Proven sharp fading rally
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 80% resolved win rate is fading the recent Yes rally by selling Yes, equivalent to buying No at 77¢.
$1,068Wallet win rate: 76%Score: 4.7 - Proven sharp fading rally
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 80% resolved win rate is fading the recent Yes rally by selling Yes, equivalent to buying No at 77¢.
$1,006Wallet win rate: 76%Score: 4.7 - Proven sharp fading rally
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 80% resolved win rate is fading the recent Yes rally by selling Yes, equivalent to buying No at 77¢.
$1,350Wallet win rate: 76%Score: 4.7 - Proven sharp fading rally
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with an 80% resolved win rate is fading the recent Yes rally by selling Yes, equivalent to buying No at 77¢.
$3,150Wallet win rate: 76%Score: 4.7
Top wallets in this event
- 0xfc2f4f…10c7$20,656 · 2 markets · 11 alerts · 76% wins
- 0x165ed3…f5aa$4,900 · 2 markets · 3 alerts · 78% wins
- 0x986878…64b0$4,482 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 90% wins
- 0xc7e53a…2d3a$3,837 · 1 market · 1 alert · 82% wins
- 0x0a2605…1851$2,000 · 1 market · 1 alert · 79% wins
- 0x9c987f…f4f4$1,844 · 1 market · 1 alert · 94% wins
- 0x6af72a…5a6f$1,005 · 1 market · 1 alert · 82% wins
FAQs
What are the odds the US announces a blockade on Iran?
The live Polymarket odds show how traders are pricing the chance that the US officially announces a naval blockade on Iran, ships traveling to or from Iranian ports, or ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by the deadline.
What is the smart money doing on this Iran blockade market?
PolySpotter has tracked $2,500 in smart money activity across this event, with a recent alert showing a proven bettor buying No.
What would make this market resolve Yes?
It resolves Yes if the US government, or an authorized representative, publicly and officially announces the imposition of a naval blockade on Iran or covered shipping routes before the deadline.
When does the US Iran blockade market resolve?
The event is scheduled to resolve based on whether a qualifying official announcement occurs by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. If no such announcement happens, it resolves No.