Part of: Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?
This Polymarket market asks whether the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transit calls will be between 0 and 10 on May 31, 2026, based on IMF PortWatch “Arrivals of Ships” data. The market covers reported container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ship transits, with resolution expected once the relevant PortWatch data is available. PolySpotter currently tracks $25,735 in smart money exposure and 1 smart money signal for this market, including a recent whale-driven thin-market breakout alert.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $25,735.
Categories: Iran, traffic, Oil, Hormuz, Hormoz, Geopolitics, tanker, U.S. x Iran, Strait of Hormuz, Rewards 300 4.5 50
Notable Trades
Whale drives thin-market breakout
A very large Yes buy on a thin Strait of Hormuz transit market dwarfed recent volume and helped extend a major upside breakout, though the wallet's long-term record is not strong.
- A single $25.7K buy was more than 8x the market’s entire 24h volume.
- The trade pushed Yes through a major breakout after the price had already risen about 50 points this week.
- This looks like fresh conviction after the wallet closed a prior No position and flipped to Yes.
$25,735 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 47%
Top Holders
- 0xc8ab...6418 — Yes, $12,851 (47% win rate)
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $11,061
- 0xcca9...4c9f — Yes, $5,291 (60% win rate)
- 0x9d73...216b — No, $5,068 (75% win rate)
- 0x30f9...fbfc — Yes, $2,045
- 0xf797...0bf2 — No, $2,000
- 0x00d2...fb50 — Yes, $1,771 (44% win rate)
- 0xefde...783d — No, $1,500 (51% win rate)
- 0x5ecf...af11 — No, $1,500 (90% win rate)
- 0x2c1a...42d8 — No, $1,189
Related Theses
Iran peace deal by June
Covers 4 related markets
