Part of: What Iranian demands will Trump agree to in April?

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?

6 smart money signals detected, totaling $21,918.

Categories: Enrich, Politics, Geopolitics, Trump, Uranium, toll, Sanctions, Trade War, Tariff, Iran Ceasefire, Strait of Hormuz, Fees, Iran, Economy

Notable Trades

Proven macro trader fading Yes

Profitable high-volume cross-market trader with 888 resolved bets sold Yes at 37¢, which translates to buying No at 63¢ on a politically relevant market with strong recent momentum.

  • This bettor has 888 resolved bets, a 64% win rate, and over $1.3M in profit
  • The trade was a sell of Yes at 37¢, which is equivalent to buying No around 63¢
  • They trade across related event markets at scale, with $2.19M tracked across 55 markets

$3,478 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%

Profitable macro trader fading Yes

A highly profitable, high-volume political trader with 888 resolved bets sold Yes at 34¢, which converts to a Buy No signal around 66¢ in a news-driven market that has already moved sharply this week.

  • This bettor has 888 resolved trades, wins 64% of them, and is up $1.37M overall
  • The trade is effectively BUY No around 66¢, showing a clear view against a uranium-enrichment deal by April
  • This wallet trades across 53 related markets and 38 events, suggesting a repeatable macro-news process rather than a one-off punt

$1,073 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%

Profitable macro news trader

A highly active and profitable cross-market trader with nearly $1.0M in realized profit bought Yes at 46¢ in a fast-moving geopolitics market.

  • This bettor has won 64% of 888 resolved trades and is up about $984k lifetime
  • They track 38 events across 51 markets, which suggests a repeatable news-trading process rather than a one-off bet
  • They bought Yes at 46¢ while this market is up 15 points in a day, joining strong momentum in an active geopolitics market

$4,115 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 64%

Sharp cluster buying Yes

Three wallets sold No together, which translates to buying Yes around 19¢, and one of them is a very high-volume bettor with a 95% win rate and $72k profit, making this coordinated contrarian flow worth watching despite the modest score.

  • Three wallets moved together within hours, effectively buying Yes around 19¢ in a market priced at 14¢ now.
  • One wallet wins 95% of 1,013 resolved bets and is up $72.7k lifetime, giving this cluster some real credibility.
  • This is a fresh contrarian swing after the market dropped 24 points in a day, suggesting they see the selloff as overdone.

$5,662 on Yes

Profitable macro event trader

A high-volume serial cross-market trader with nearly $1M in profit bought Yes at 25¢ during a major volume spike, making this a credible thesis-driven political trade worth surfacing.

  • This bettor has won 64% of 882 resolved trades and is up about $968k lifetime
  • They trade across related events at scale — 35 events, 49 markets, and $1.48M in flagged cross-market flow
  • They bought Yes at 25¢ during a 31x volume spike, suggesting a fresh macro view rather than random activity

$5,873 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 64%

72% win-rate macro bettor

A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with a strong long-term record bought No at 86¢ in a geopolitics market, making this a credible sharp-follower signal despite only one detection source.

  • This bettor wins 72% of 1,130 resolved trades and is up $213.7k lifetime
  • They have traded 308 markets across 133 events, which points to a repeatable process rather than a one-off punt
  • They bought No at 86¢ in a live geopolitics market, implying they see only a small chance of a US-Iran enrichment deal this month

$1,717 on No | Wallet win rate: 65%

Top Holders

  1. 0xfc2f...10c7 Outcome 11403971, $22,609 (82% win rate)
  2. 0x4a2b...af20 Outcome 11403971, $18,000 (43% win rate)
  3. 0xa82b...5220 Outcome 11403971, $7,500 (46% win rate)
  4. 0xc89d...b1f1 Outcome 11403971, $6,080 (100% win rate)
  5. 0x9ca1...13b5 Outcome 11403971, $4,575 (58% win rate)
  6. 0x8482...07d4 Outcome 11403971, $2,671 (50% win rate)
  7. 0x8fdb...6bfe Outcome 11403971, $2,500
  8. 0xd9de...ab3e Outcome 11403971, $2,500
  9. 0x1cfc...2111 Outcome 11403971, $2,312
  10. 0xcb84...4fbc Outcome 11403971, $2,076 (62% win rate)

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Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?

ResolvedWhat Iranian demands will Trump agree to in April?$21,918 tracked6 signalsEnrichPoliticsGeopoliticsTrumpUraniumtollSanctionsTrade WarTariffIran CeasefireStrait of HormuzFeesIranEconomy

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment. The United States will be considered to have agreed to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that they have definitively agreed to accept the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran. - Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means. Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and the US government and their official representatives; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.

Notable Trades

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?

34d ago

$3,478 on No at 63¢

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?

36d ago

$1,073 on No at 66¢

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?

38d ago

$4,115 on Yes at 46¢

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?

34d ago

$5,662 on Yes at 19¢

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?

39d ago

$5,873 on Yes at 25¢

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?

45d ago

$1,717 on No at 86¢

Related Theses