Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?

This Polymarket tracks whether the United States, under Donald Trump, will agree to Iran’s continued enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026. The market resolves Yes if the US accepts Iran enriching uranium—or Iran’s right to enrich—even with limits or monitoring conditions; otherwise it resolves No. Traders watch this market as a signal on Trump, Iran diplomacy, sanctions, and nuclear negotiations.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment. The United States will be considered to have agreed to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that they have definitively agreed to accept the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran. - Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means. Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and the US government and their official representatives; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,717.

Categories: Enrich, Politics, Geopolitics, Trump, Uranium, toll, Sanctions, Trade War, Tariff, Iran Ceasefire, Strait of Hormuz, Fees, Iran, Economy

Notable Trades

72% win-rate macro bettor

A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with a strong long-term record bought No at 86¢ in a geopolitics market, making this a credible sharp-follower signal despite only one detection source.

  • This bettor wins 72% of 1,130 resolved trades and is up $213.7k lifetime
  • They have traded 308 markets across 133 events, which points to a repeatable process rather than a one-off punt
  • They bought No at 86¢ in a live geopolitics market, implying they see only a small chance of a US-Iran enrichment deal this month

$1,717 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%

Top Holders

  1. 0xb4f2...e5fa Yes, $6,741 (69% win rate)
  2. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $4,000 (49% win rate)
  3. 0xfc2f...10c7 Yes, $2,500 (88% win rate)
  4. 0xe738...df65 No, $2,002 (72% win rate)
  5. 0xfa3d...7198 No, $1,510
  6. 0xedc2...ad9f Yes, $1,144
  7. 0x989f...4673 No, $1,000
  8. 0xc80d...1929 No, $865
  9. 0x770e...7640 Yes, $797 (23% win rate)
  10. 0xdd0f...ac4d Yes, $580

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Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?

18d$1,717 tracked1 signalEnrichPoliticsGeopoliticsTrumpUraniumtollSanctionsTrade WarTariffIran CeasefireStrait of HormuzFeesIranEconomy
Yes
14¢
No
86¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States agrees to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran refers to US acceptance of the enrichment of, or the right to enrich, any quantity of uranium by Iran for any future amount of time. Agreements that include limitations, restrictions, or specified terms (e.g., caps on enrichment level, monitoring requirements) will qualify, provided the United States accepts continued enrichment. The United States will be considered to have agreed to the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that they have definitively agreed to accept the continued enrichment of uranium by Iran. - Continued enrichment of uranium by Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means. Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and the US government and their official representatives; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.

Price History — “No
94¢
88¢
81¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?

2h ago

$1,717 on No at 86¢

86¢86¢

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