Part of: What Iranian demands will Trump agree to in April?
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?
6 smart money signals detected, totaling $21,918.
Categories: Enrich, Politics, Geopolitics, Trump, Uranium, toll, Sanctions, Trade War, Tariff, Iran Ceasefire, Strait of Hormuz, Fees, Iran, Economy
Notable Trades
Proven macro trader fading Yes
Profitable high-volume cross-market trader with 888 resolved bets sold Yes at 37¢, which translates to buying No at 63¢ on a politically relevant market with strong recent momentum.
- This bettor has 888 resolved bets, a 64% win rate, and over $1.3M in profit
- The trade was a sell of Yes at 37¢, which is equivalent to buying No around 63¢
- They trade across related event markets at scale, with $2.19M tracked across 55 markets
$3,478 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
Profitable macro trader fading Yes
A highly profitable, high-volume political trader with 888 resolved bets sold Yes at 34¢, which converts to a Buy No signal around 66¢ in a news-driven market that has already moved sharply this week.
- This bettor has 888 resolved trades, wins 64% of them, and is up $1.37M overall
- The trade is effectively BUY No around 66¢, showing a clear view against a uranium-enrichment deal by April
- This wallet trades across 53 related markets and 38 events, suggesting a repeatable macro-news process rather than a one-off punt
$1,073 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%
Profitable macro news trader
A highly active and profitable cross-market trader with nearly $1.0M in realized profit bought Yes at 46¢ in a fast-moving geopolitics market.
- This bettor has won 64% of 888 resolved trades and is up about $984k lifetime
- They track 38 events across 51 markets, which suggests a repeatable news-trading process rather than a one-off bet
- They bought Yes at 46¢ while this market is up 15 points in a day, joining strong momentum in an active geopolitics market
$4,115 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 64%
Sharp cluster buying Yes
Three wallets sold No together, which translates to buying Yes around 19¢, and one of them is a very high-volume bettor with a 95% win rate and $72k profit, making this coordinated contrarian flow worth watching despite the modest score.
- Three wallets moved together within hours, effectively buying Yes around 19¢ in a market priced at 14¢ now.
- One wallet wins 95% of 1,013 resolved bets and is up $72.7k lifetime, giving this cluster some real credibility.
- This is a fresh contrarian swing after the market dropped 24 points in a day, suggesting they see the selloff as overdone.
$5,662 on Yes
Profitable macro event trader
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with nearly $1M in profit bought Yes at 25¢ during a major volume spike, making this a credible thesis-driven political trade worth surfacing.
- This bettor has won 64% of 882 resolved trades and is up about $968k lifetime
- They trade across related events at scale — 35 events, 49 markets, and $1.48M in flagged cross-market flow
- They bought Yes at 25¢ during a 31x volume spike, suggesting a fresh macro view rather than random activity
$5,873 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 64%
72% win-rate macro bettor
A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with a strong long-term record bought No at 86¢ in a geopolitics market, making this a credible sharp-follower signal despite only one detection source.
- This bettor wins 72% of 1,130 resolved trades and is up $213.7k lifetime
- They have traded 308 markets across 133 events, which points to a repeatable process rather than a one-off punt
- They bought No at 86¢ in a live geopolitics market, implying they see only a small chance of a US-Iran enrichment deal this month
$1,717 on No | Wallet win rate: 65%
Top Holders
- 0xfc2f...10c7 — Outcome 11403971, $22,609 (82% win rate)
- 0x4a2b...af20 — Outcome 11403971, $18,000 (43% win rate)
- 0xa82b...5220 — Outcome 11403971, $7,500 (46% win rate)
- 0xc89d...b1f1 — Outcome 11403971, $6,080 (100% win rate)
- 0x9ca1...13b5 — Outcome 11403971, $4,575 (58% win rate)
- 0x8482...07d4 — Outcome 11403971, $2,671 (50% win rate)
- 0x8fdb...6bfe — Outcome 11403971, $2,500
- 0xd9de...ab3e — Outcome 11403971, $2,500
- 0x1cfc...2111 — Outcome 11403971, $2,312
- 0xcb84...4fbc — Outcome 11403971, $2,076 (62% win rate)
