Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?

This Polymarket asks whether the United States, under Trump, will agree by April 30, 2026 to Iran charging transit fees on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The market resolves to Yes only if the U.S. accepts Iranian tolls, passage charges, or similar mandatory payments for commercial vessel transit; otherwise it resolves No. Traders are watching this market as a geopolitical signal tied to Iran, sanctions, shipping, and regional trade tensions.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz refers to U.S. acceptance of Iran imposing tolls, transit fees, passage charges, or other mandatory payments on commercial vessels in exchange for transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The United States will be considered to have agreed to Iran charging such fees if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to accept Iran charging such fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. - Iran charging such fees is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means. Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,751.

Categories: Enrich, Politics, Geopolitics, Trump, Uranium, toll, Sanctions, Trade War, Tariff, Iran Ceasefire, Strait of Hormuz, Fees, Iran, Economy

Notable Trades

87% win-rate macro bettor

An 87% win-rate serial cross-market trader is buying No at 90¢ on a geopolitics market, making this a credible follow despite the modest size and only one signal.

  • This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up nearly $29k lifetime
  • They have traded 37 markets across 30 events, which points to a repeatable edge rather than a one-off bet
  • Buying No at 90¢ fits their history of winning on heavy favorites, though the upside is smaller than a longer-shot entry

$1,751 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%

Top Holders

  1. 0x6c92...1322 Yes, $4,988
  2. 0x3d3c...e797 No, $3,470 (84% win rate)
  3. 0x11f3...d859 No, $2,500
  4. 0xe617...f251 No, $2,222 (95% win rate)
  5. 0x02a1...dd72 Yes, $2,000
  6. 0x4133...ea5d No, $1,946 (87% win rate)
  7. 0x87a2...af52 Yes, $1,301
  8. 0xf155...76bd No, $1,268 (58% win rate)
  9. 0x5cd5...ac33 No, $1,225 (92% win rate)
  10. 0xc8ab...6418 Yes, $1,202 (48% win rate)

Related Theses

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 1 related market

Covers 4 related markets

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?

16d$1,751 tracked1 signalEnrichPoliticsGeopoliticsTrumpUraniumtollSanctionsTrade WarTariffIran CeasefireStrait of HormuzFeesIranEconomy
Yes
10¢
No
91¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz refers to U.S. acceptance of Iran imposing tolls, transit fees, passage charges, or other mandatory payments on commercial vessels in exchange for transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The United States will be considered to have agreed to Iran charging such fees if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to accept Iran charging such fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. - Iran charging such fees is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means. Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.

Price History — “No
92¢
82¢
73¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?

2h ago

$1,751 on No at 90¢

90¢91¢1¢

Related Theses

Trump Iran Strait of Hormuz Fees Prediction Market | PolySpotter