Part of: Will Trump restart Project Freedom by...?

Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?

This prediction market asks whether Donald Trump, the U.S. government, or the U.S. military will announce a restart of Project Freedom, a U.S.-led escort mission for commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz. It resolves based on an explicit Project Freedom restart announcement or a substantially equivalent initiative by the June 30, 2026 deadline; PolySpotter currently tracks $3,350 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal on this market.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $3,350.

Categories: Strait of Hormuz, Politics, Geopolitics, Trump, Iran, U.S. x Iran

Notable Trades

Profitable cross-market regular

Profitable serial cross-market trader with a large resolved history is buying No on a geopolitical market, though the signal is moderate rather than exceptional.

  • This bettor is up $343K across 859 resolved markets, with a 62% win rate.
  • They repeatedly trade related markets, with $601K placed across 67 markets in 31 events.
  • Buying No at 67¢ suggests they see the restart announcement as less likely than current odds imply.

$3,350 on No | Wallet win rate: 62%

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Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?

33dWill Trump restart Project Freedom by...?$3,350 tracked1 signalStrait of HormuzPoliticsGeopoliticsTrumpIranU.S. x Iran

Project Freedom was a U.S.-led military initiative to escort commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump, the United States government, or the United States military announces that Project Freedom will be restarted by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement explicitly stating that “Project Freedom” will be restarted will qualify. Additionally, any announcement of a substantially equivalent United States military program to escort, protect, or retrieve commercial ships in or through the Strait of Hormuz will qualify. Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, expressions of openness, reported preparations, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced program goes into effect. The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump, the United States government, and the United States military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Notable Trades

Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?

2h ago

$3,350 on No at 67¢

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