Part of: Will Trump restart Project Freedom by...?
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?
14 smart money signals detected, totaling $97,321.
Categories: Strait of Hormuz, Politics, Geopolitics, Trump, Iran, U.S. x Iran
Notable Trades
Profitable serial event trader
Profitable serial cross-market trader bought Yes after a major volume spike and sharp price move in a geopolitically plausible market.
- This bettor has won 67% of 1,098 resolved trades and is up $279k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with activity across 66 events and $1.9M total flagged volume.
- This market saw a 114x volume spike and Yes odds jumped 77.5 points in one day.
$2,927 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%
Sharp trader fades spike
A proven 75% winner with large cross-market history is selling Yes after a huge price spike, though this looks more like trimming an existing position than a fresh all-in No bet.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $234k lifetime.
- They have traded 165 markets across 92 events, making this a strong cross-market track record.
- Selling Yes at 86¢ after a 72-point daily surge suggests they may see the current price as stretched.
$1,724 on No | Wallet win rate: 72%
Profitable serial trader flips Yes
A profitable serial cross-market trader flipped into Yes during a major volume spike and sharp price move toward restart odds.
- This bettor has traded 156 markets across 91 events and is up $324k lifetime.
- They closed a prior No position and bought Yes at 87¢, signaling a clear change in view.
- The market saw a 127x volume spike and Yes is up 70 points in 24 hours, matching the direction of the trade.
$2,610 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%
Sharp wallets fading spike
Three wallets, including a 75% winner up $234k and serial cross-market traders, are fading a massive Yes move by selling Yes, equivalent to buying No around 16¢.
- A bettor who wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $234k is selling Yes here.
- Three wallets sold $6.0k of Yes after the market jumped about 70 points in one day.
- This flow is equivalent to buying No around 16¢, a contrarian bet against the recent surge.
$6,032 on No
Profitable serial trader flips Yes
Profitable serial cross-market trader flipped into Yes ahead of a major volume and price surge, with the market moving from their 81¢ entry to 90¢.
- This bettor has a long track record: 68% wins across 693 resolved bets and $324K in profit.
- They bought Yes at 81¢ and the market has already moved to 90¢ after a 156x volume spike.
- They previously closed a No position, suggesting a clear flip in view rather than routine position management.
$3,727 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%
Sharp cross-market geopolitics bettor
Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 75% resolved win rate bought Yes before a major volume spike and price jump on a geopolitics market.
- This bettor has won 75% of 396 resolved trades and is up $234k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 92 events with $7.6M in tracked volume.
- Market activity spiked 284x and Yes jumped from their 86¢ entry to 94¢.
$5,607 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%
88% winner follows volume spike
Sharp serial cross-market trader with an 88% win rate bought Yes amid a massive volume spike and strong price momentum.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $330,973 lifetime.
- They have traded across 27 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge rather than a one-off bet.
- Market volume spiked 284x and Yes has surged 82 points in the last day.
$1,779 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%
Sharp nine-wallet Yes surge
High-conviction Yes cluster with a 522x volume spike, an 82-point daily price move, and multiple highly profitable bettors joining the same side.
- Nine wallets bought $54.8K of Yes, far outweighing the smaller $6.2K No flow.
- Two bettors in the cluster have standout records, including one winning 93% and another winning 88% of resolved bets.
- Yes jumped 82 points in a day as volume spiked 522x, suggesting fast-moving conviction around a news-driven market.
$54,834 on Yes
Profitable serial thesis trader
A profitable serial cross-market trader is re-entering a Yes position amid strong recent price momentum, but the edge signal is moderate rather than exceptional.
- This bettor is up $82.6K lifetime across more than 1,000 resolved markets.
- They regularly build cross-market theses, with 72 related-market trades across 44 events.
- This trade effectively buys Yes at 27¢ while the market has moved up 14 points this week.
$2,777 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 54%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
Profitable serial cross-market trader with a 74% record and $168k lifetime profit is effectively buying Yes at 25¢ across related markets.
- This bettor has won 74% of 1,204 resolved bets and is up about $168k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 103 events and 209 markets with $708k tracked volume.
- Selling No at 75¢ is effectively buying Yes at 25¢, taking a contrarian position after Yes fell 26% this week.
$1,583 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%
Top Holders
- 0x5c90...79f4 — Outcome 50605095, $2,000,000 (25% win rate)
- 0xbd04...fbb0 — Outcome 50605095, $138,132 (71% win rate)
- 0x9bd9...d4ec — Outcome 50605095, $100,000
- 0x5b63...11a4 — Outcome 50605095, $74,590 (69% win rate)
- 0x5139...9402 — Outcome 50605095, $50,000
- 0x61b3...cc9f — Outcome 50605095, $50,000
- 0xa2a8...b52a — Outcome 50605095, $44,100
- 0x63fd...0be0 — Outcome 50605095, $40,000
- 0xcfa2...11fd — Outcome 50605095, $40,000
- 0xe866...060e — Outcome 50605095, $36,320
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Iran keeps airspace open
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Iran closes airspace late June
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Keiko wins Peru presidency
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