Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $3,333.

Notable Trades

Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?

A proven sharp wallet with an 88% win rate and strong historical edge just bought Yes at 17¢ in a geopolitics market, making this a credible copy-trade despite only one signal.

  • This bettor wins 88% of their resolved trades and is up $224k across 125 bets
  • They bought Yes at 17¢, a low price that implies they see the strike risk as materially higher than the market does
  • The market is active enough to take seriously, but this was still a meaningful $3.3k position from a proven winner

$3,333 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%

Top Holders

  1. 0xc210...f0ca Yes, $19,057 (88% win rate)
  2. 0xcb84...4fbc No, $15,188 (62% win rate)
  3. 0x8f2f...b226 No, $7,398 (61% win rate)
  4. 0x6ece...ef2f No, $6,990
  5. 0xd576...d5e3 Yes, $6,677 (58% win rate)
  6. 0xe472...e7eb No, $5,674 (86% win rate)
  7. 0x93fb...3e4a Yes, $5,642
  8. 0x2140...605f Yes, $5,450
  9. 0x053d...caed No, $5,018 (83% win rate)
  10. 0xeb22...808a Yes, $4,504 (35% win rate)

Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?

28d$3,333 tracked1 signalIsrael x IranstrikesGeopoliticsIran Offensive StrikesPoliticsMilitary StrikesU.S. x IranRegional SpilloverIsraelMiddle EastIran
Yes
14¢
No
86¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Notable Trades

Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?

2h ago

$3,333 on Yes at 17¢

17¢14¢3¢
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? | PolySpotter