Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
This Polymarket tracks whether United Russia (ER) will gain more seats than any other party in the next Russian State Duma election, expected in September 2026. Traders are pricing the chances of ER leading all parties in net seat gains, with the market resolving based on official election results or to “Other” if no definitive outcome is known by September 30, 2027.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $35,692.
Categories: World Elections, Elections, Global Elections, putin, Russia, World, Politics
Notable Trades
New whale in thin market
A repeat new wallet put $35.7k into a very quiet Russia election market in one shot, accounting for many times the day’s volume and signaling strong conviction despite limited wallet history.
- A 24-day-old wallet has already been flagged 6 times and just put $35.7k into this market
- These two buys were 21.8x the market’s last 24 hours of volume, showing unusually strong conviction
- The bettor paid 67-71¢ for Yes in a market now at 65¢, suggesting a willingness to size big despite limited liquidity
$35,692 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $167,103
- 0xf2f6...5817 — Yes, $149,640 (75% win rate)
- 0xd7f8...89e4 — No, $92,259
- 0x2684...35f2 — Yes, $51,117 (100% win rate)
- 0xe5c2...2ab0 — No, $43,560 (93% win rate)
- 0xcf19...6402 — Yes, $37,680 (57% win rate)
- 0x413f...47f3 — No, $30,000
- 0x9c26...74bc — Yes, $26,929 (94% win rate)
- 0xf4cc...571d — No, $26,755 (100% win rate)
- 0xb559...5e7c — No, $20,765
