Part of: Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
This Polymarket market asks whether United Russia (ER) will gain more seats than any other party in Russia’s next State Duma election, scheduled for September 2026. The supplied metadata does not include a current market price; the market resolves based on official seat results, or to “Other” if results are not definitive by September 30, 2027.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
20 smart money signals detected, totaling $149,328.
Categories: World Elections, Elections, Global Elections, putin, Russia, World, Politics, International Election Props
Notable Trades
Sharp bettor scaling into Yes
A highly profitable bettor with an 87% win rate and substantial edge is adding to an existing Yes position at 69%.
- This bettor wins 87% of 79 resolved trades and is up $32,463.
- The 69¢ Yes purchase adds to an existing $2,100 position, signaling continued conviction.
- The market has recently moved up 5.5% over the past week, supporting the bettor's direction.
$1,389 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 87%
Proven sharp buys United Russia
A highly experienced bettor with a 78% win rate and substantial positive edge is making a fresh Yes purchase in this market.
- This bettor wins 78% of 998 resolved trades and is up $524,315 lifetime.
- Their average winning entry is 60¢, yet they are buying Yes at 67¢ in a market currently priced at 68%.
- The wallet has traded across 806 markets, providing a broad and unusually strong track record.
$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%
Three-wallet Yes accumulation
Three wallets are adding roughly $14.5K to existing Yes positions, providing a moderate coordinated bullish signal reinforced by a 10% weekly price rise.
- Three wallets bought $14,513 of Yes, with each adding to an existing position rather than making a one-off trade.
- The market has risen 10% over the past week, broadly confirming the coordinated bullish positioning.
- The traders entered around 67¢–70¢, but their mixed track records and the market’s long 2026 horizon make this a moderate-conviction signal.
$14,513 on Yes
Profitable funded cluster buying Yes
A profitable wallet in a recurring 3-wallet funded cluster bought Yes, giving this modest trade more signal than its size alone suggests.
- A 3-wallet cluster funded by the same source is betting the same way across runs.
- This wallet is 7-for-7 on resolved bets and is up $146K lifetime.
- Entry at 56¢ suggests the bettor sees more upside despite this being a liquid market.
$4,870 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
Profitable serial trader adds to Yes
A highly experienced serial trader with 1,073 resolved bets and $3.57M profit is adding to an existing Yes position at 58¢.
- This bettor has won 75% of 1,073 resolved trades and earned $3.57M in profit.
- They are adding $3,547 to an existing Yes position despite the market trading below their 69¢ average entry.
- The trader has positioned across 90 events and 132 markets, indicating a broad and established strategy rather than a one-off bet.
$3,547 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%
Profitable 86% bettor fading Yes
Surfaced because a profitable wallet with an 86% record is fading Yes on a long-dated political market despite only a modest single signal.
- This bettor has won 18 of 21 resolved bets and is profitable overall.
- They are effectively buying No at 45¢ with a $3.3K position.
- Entry at 45¢ implies they see the market as underpricing the chance ER does not gain the most seats.
$3,300 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
Sharp cross-market No cluster
High-scoring one-sided No cluster led by a proven 83% winner with $311k profit and a long serial cross-market track record.
- A bettor in this cluster wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $311k lifetime.
- Three wallets put $6.6k on No within minutes, including a Yes sell that converts to buying No.
- The lead trader has bet across 31 events with an 83% record, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
$6,620 on No
Sharp cross-market No cluster
Strong No-side cluster led by a highly profitable 83% winner with a long cross-market track record and $311k lifetime profit.
- Lead bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $311k lifetime.
- Three wallets put $20.5k on the No side, including $17.4k bought directly at 40¢.
- This is part of a broader political-market pattern: one trader has bet across 31 events with an 83% win rate.
$20,543 on No
Profitable serial politics bettor
Sharp profitable political bettor with 83% wins and strong cross-market history bought $7.2k of No amid a major volume spike.
- This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $311k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with 31 events and $464k deployed, suggesting a repeatable politics edge.
- They bought $7.2k of No around 36–37¢ during a 38x volume spike, and the position has already moved to 40¢.
$7,198 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%
85% winner betting NO
Sharp profitable wallet with an 85% win rate and extensive cross-market history bought $10.2k of No on a liquid Russian election market.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up about $331k lifetime.
- They have traded 37 markets across 28 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- A $10.2k buy at 36¢ shows conviction against the market’s current Yes lean.
$10,242 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $537,232
- 0xe5c2...2ab0 — No, $265,979 (94% win rate)
- 0xf2f6...5817 — Yes, $235,120 (75% win rate)
- 0xd7f8...89e4 — No, $121,490
- 0x4c8c...e36f — Yes, $107,089 (100% win rate)
- 0x614d...1546 — Yes, $99,970 (67% win rate)
- 0x5c14...cc49 — Yes, $89,422 (86% win rate)
- 0xcd71...d127 — Yes, $75,000 (81% win rate)
- 0xcf19...6402 — Yes, $74,192 (58% win rate)
- 0x7bc1...8db4 — Yes, $66,183 (67% win rate)
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