Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?
This Polymarket asks whether U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance will visit the Greater Middle East by April 10 under the market’s specific rules. It covers countries including Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, Qatar, and others in the defined region, and resolves based on whether an official qualifying visit occurs before the deadline. Traders are using this market to price the odds of a Vance Middle East trip amid broader U.S.-Iran and regional geopolitical tensions.
If U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance visits the Greater Middle East between market creation and the listed date and 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the Greater Middle East refers to the region comprising Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Yemen, Turkey, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Vance physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of a listed country. Whether or not Vance enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Vance or released by his verified social media accounts, however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $3,445.
Categories: U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Politics, Iran, Trump, Iran Ceasefire
Notable Trades
80% win-rate contrarian
A bettor with an 80% win rate and positive realized P&L made a sizable contrarian buy in this political market, paying 38¢ for Yes while the market has since fallen to 15¢.
- This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up nearly $5.9k on about $67k invested
- They bought Yes at 38¢ in a politics market that now trades at 15¢, showing a clear high-conviction view against the crowd
- The position is meaningful at $3.4k, though it came in a fairly active market rather than a thin one
$3,445 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%
Top Holders
- 0x76ef...6559 — Yes, $26,443 (100% win rate)
- 0x3c0c...fbb7 — No, $18,387 (0% win rate)
- 0x955c...990f — No, $18,306 (77% win rate)
- 0x1332...2b23 — Yes, $11,837
- 0xa313...eb44 — Yes, $9,137 (80% win rate)
- 0x9a3f...914a — No, $7,000 (58% win rate)
- 0x5116...58c4 — No, $6,974 (42% win rate)
- 0x5ee9...2673 — No, $5,630 (100% win rate)
- 0x6c92...1322 — Yes, $5,581
- 0x5039...946d — No, $4,601
