Part of: Israeli Legislative Election Winner
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties or coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose candidate list received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Israeli Knesset. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page). The following rules govern the merging, joint contention, and splitting of listed parties: - If Likud or Together (or any successor party created through a merger) merge with or contest the election jointly with any other party, the option corresponding to Likud or Together will represent the resultant candidate list or merged party. Otherwise: - If a listed party merges with, or contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with, one or more unlisted parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the listed party will represent all seats won by the merged party or joint candidate list. If a listed party merges with, or contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with, one or more other listed parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the party which held the most seats in the prior Knesset will represent all seats won by the merged party/joint candidate list. If these rules do not adequately determine which option represents a merged party or joint candidate list, the listed party whose name, as listed in this market, comes first in alphabetical order, will represent all seats won by the merged party or joint candidate list. - If a listed party splits into multiple parties prior to the election, the option corresponding to the listed party will represent the resulting party that holds the greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of the split. If these rules do not adequately determine which party represents a listed option after a split, the listed option will represent all seats won by the party resulting from the split whose primary English name comes first in alphabetical order.
20 smart money signals detected, totaling $146,531.
Categories: Politics, Main Election, Global Elections, Israel, Elections, netanyahu, Bennett, Likud, Israel Election
Notable Trades
Profitable serial trader adding to Yes
A profitable bettor with a 77% record and activity across 35 events is adding to an existing Yes position despite the market trading near 74%.
- This bettor has won 77% of 60 resolved trades and is up $48,752 overall.
- They are adding to a $5,000 Yes position, buying another $1,872 at 75¢.
- The wallet has traded across 35 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market approach.
$1,847 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
A highly experienced, lifetime-profitable trader has a $22,225 position across two markets in the same election, though this individual buy is near the market price and their win rate does not clearly beat typical entry odds.
- This bettor has over 13,000 resolved trades and is up about $234,000 lifetime.
- They have $22,225 across two markets in this election; this Yes buy was at 74¢, close to the current odds.
$1,106 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
A highly experienced, lifetime-profitable trader has a $22,225 position across two markets in the same election, though this individual buy is near the market price and their win rate does not clearly beat typical entry odds.
- This bettor has over 13,000 resolved trades and is up about $234,000 lifetime.
- They have $22,225 across two markets in this election; this Yes buy was at 74¢, close to the current odds.
$1,329 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
A highly experienced, lifetime-profitable trader has a $22,225 position across two markets in the same election, though this individual buy is near the market price and their win rate does not clearly beat typical entry odds.
- This bettor has over 13,000 resolved trades and is up about $234,000 lifetime.
- They have $22,225 across two markets in this election; this Yes buy was at 74¢, close to the current odds.
$1,480 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
A highly experienced, lifetime-profitable trader has a $22,225 position across two markets in the same election, though this individual buy is near the market price and their win rate does not clearly beat typical entry odds.
- This bettor has over 13,000 resolved trades and is up about $234,000 lifetime.
- They have $22,225 across two markets in this election; this Yes buy was at 74¢, close to the current odds.
$1,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%
Profitable serial cross-market bettor
A highly experienced, lifetime-profitable trader has a $22,225 position across two markets in the same election, though this individual buy is near the market price and their win rate does not clearly beat typical entry odds.
- This bettor has over 13,000 resolved trades and is up about $234,000 lifetime.
- They have $22,225 across two markets in this election; this Yes buy was at 74¢, close to the current odds.
$1,480 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%
Seven-wallet shared-funder cluster
A seven-wallet shared-funder cluster has accumulated about $1,805 on Yes, though the individual wallet’s history does not show clear odds-adjusted edge.
- Seven wallets share a funder, with about $1,805 associated with this position across the cluster.
- The wallet bought Yes at 72¢; its 66% win rate does not clearly exceed its average winning entry price of 82¢.
- The market is liquid, so the main signal is the shared funding link rather than an unusually large bet.
$1,554 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Seven-wallet shared-funder cluster
A seven-wallet shared-funder cluster has accumulated about $1,805 on Yes, though the individual wallet’s history does not show clear odds-adjusted edge.
- Seven wallets share a funder, with about $1,805 associated with this position across the cluster.
- The wallet bought Yes at 72¢; its 66% win rate does not clearly exceed its average winning entry price of 82¢.
- The market is liquid, so the main signal is the shared funding link rather than an unusually large bet.
$1,805 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Three-wallet coordinated Yes buying
Three wallets bought $23,872 of Yes in a concentrated burst, with two adding to existing positions and recurring cross-market traders among them.
- Three wallets bought about $23,900 of Yes within 25 seconds, a notable one-sided burst.
- Two buyers already held Yes and added at 70¢; the market is liquid, with a 1¢ spread.
- Two participating wallets have extensive cross-market histories, though their win rates do not establish a clear edge here.
$7,076 on Yes
Profitable serial trader adding to Yes
A profitable bettor with a 77% record and activity across 35 events is adding to an existing Yes position despite the market trading near 74%.
- This bettor has won 77% of 60 resolved trades and is up $48,752 overall.
- They are adding to a $5,000 Yes position, buying another $1,872 at 75¢.
- The wallet has traded across 35 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market approach.
$1,856 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $1,464,141
- 0x6575...b198 — Yes, $406,842 (75% win rate)
- 0x23d8...0288 — Yes, $176,657 (81% win rate)
- 0xc301...66aa — Yes, $89,038 (71% win rate)
- 0x44c1...ebc1 — Yes, $54,667 (62% win rate)
- 0xcdb7...6ad3 — Yes, $54,117
- 0x134a...9e42 — Yes, $51,816 (85% win rate)
- 0xc6dd...4b9f — Yes, $48,696 (70% win rate)
- 0x05f6...25a1 — Yes, $43,885 (67% win rate)
- 0x6bab...1292 — Yes, $40,332 (57% win rate)
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