6-wallet contrarian cluster

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Six wallets simultaneously sold No, which translates to coordinated buying of Yes around 11-30¢ after a major 1-day collapse to 6%, creating a notable clustered contrarian bet on a real geopolitical market.
Total
$15,254
Trades
7
Analysis
- Six wallets piled into the same side for $15.3k total, a strong coordinated bet against a market sitting at just 6¢ Yes.
- These fills came by selling No at 70-89¢, which is equivalent to buying Yes around 11-30¢ after a 44.5-point one-day crash.
- Several wallets have meaningful history, including one bettor with an 87% win rate and another up $176k lifetime, suggesting this was not random retail flow.
Copy Trade
Buy Yes at 21¢
Detected April 25, 2026 at 6:59 PM