US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?

This Polymarket tracks whether official representatives of the United States and Iran will hold a direct diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026. It resolves Yes only if authorized officials from both governments meet in an official diplomatic capacity before the deadline; indirect contacts or unofficial discussions do not count. PolySpotter is currently tracking $3,128 in smart money activity on this market.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $3,128.

Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

Profitable geopolitics regular

A high-volume geopolitical trader with a large profitable history bought No at 81¢ after a sharp 1-day price drop, making this a credible thesis trade worth tracking despite the signals being entirely cross-market based.

  • This bettor has 795 resolved trades, wins 68% of them, and is up about $753k lifetime
  • They trade heavily across related event markets — 70 events and 99 markets tracked for nearly $891k total
  • They bought No at 81¢ after this market fell 23 points in a day, signaling conviction that no official meeting happens by April 28

$3,128 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%

Top Holders

  1. 0x9648...6825 Yes, $24,119 (70% win rate)
  2. 0x4377...cd61 No, $5,933 (0% win rate)
  3. 0xacbc...7cc3 Yes, $5,217 (16% win rate)
  4. 0xb100...6461 No, $5,209 (57% win rate)
  5. 0x5666...c630 No, $5,000
  6. 0x0562...9d66 Yes, $5,000 (42% win rate)
  7. 0xecaa...77a9 No, $3,861 (68% win rate)
  8. 0x1f58...62a5 No, $3,843
  9. 0x6e4b...3c6d No, $2,798
  10. 0x5c6e...0617 No, $2,541 (54% win rate)

Related Theses

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Covers 2 related markets

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?

3d$3,128 tracked1 signalPoliticsIran CeasefireIranVanceTrumpU.S. x IranGeopolitics
Yes
18¢
No
83¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “No
84¢
65¢
47¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?

3h ago

$3,128 on No at 81¢

81¢83¢2¢

Related Theses