6-wallet sharp No cluster

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Six wallets with strong cross-market histories and several strong win rates converged on No around 20¢, while multiple traders actively flipped out of prior Yes positions into the same thesis.
Total
$17,819
Trades
7
Analysis
- Six wallets piled into No for $17.8k, including one bettor who wins 85% of their trades and is up $416k.
- Several of these wallets trade dozens of related geopolitics markets, with one serial trader posting an 85% win rate across 82 markets and $1.14M staked.
- Most of the flow came from selling Yes at 75-84¢, which is the same view as buying No around 16-25¢.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 20¢
Detected April 24, 2026 at 9:08 PM