US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

This Polymarket asks whether representatives of the United States and Iran will hold a direct diplomatic meeting in an official capacity by May 15, 2026. It resolves to Yes only if an authorized, deliberate meeting on US-Iran relations takes place before the deadline; indirect contacts and informal interactions do not count. Traders use this market to gauge the odds of a diplomatic breakthrough in US-Iran relations.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,056.

Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

88% winner, event thesis

A high-volume, high-win-rate wallet is building a consistent thesis across three related US-Iran markets, making this otherwise modest-sized buy worth watching.

  • This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades across 1,101 markets and is up about $97k lifetime.
  • They have put $6.2k across 3 related US-Iran markets, which suggests a coordinated event view rather than a one-off bet.
  • They bought Yes around 75¢ while the market still sits near 74¢, showing steady conviction more than a panic chase.

$2,056 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%

Top Holders

  1. 0x55db...2031 No, $4,000 (56% win rate)
  2. 0xcb59...0a22 No, $3,000 (67% win rate)
  3. 0x134a...9e42 Yes, $2,756 (88% win rate)
  4. 0x04cc...48ac Yes, $1,350 (67% win rate)
  5. 0xd6dd...98ee Yes, $1,290
  6. 0x3caf...6d8a Yes, $1,047 (88% win rate)
  7. 0xb51b...b4d9 Yes, $691 (62% win rate)
  8. 0x932f...2cd8 No, $619
  9. 0x5973...5e13 No, $558 (31% win rate)
  10. 0x1d60...453d Yes, $543

Related Theses

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

22d$2,056 tracked1 signalPoliticsIran CeasefireIranVanceTrumpU.S. x IranGeopolitics
Yes
75¢
No
26¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes
86¢
77¢
69¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

2h ago

$2,056 on Yes at 75¢

75¢75¢

Related Theses