Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?
50 smart money signals detected, totaling $148,141.
Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics
Notable Trades
Profitable event specialist
High-volume geopolitical trader with strong lifetime profits is adding a fresh No bet as part of broad cross-market positioning on the same US-Iran event.
- This bettor is up about $294K lifetime across more than $29M traded.
- They have broad positioning across 8 related markets, with over $51K committed to the same event theme.
- Bought No at 89¢ while the market has moved down 9 points this week, reinforcing the anti-meeting view.
$2,968 on No | Wallet win rate: 47%
Profitable cross-market bettor
Moderately proven profitable wallet is expressing a repeated cross-market thesis across 6 related US-Iran markets, buying No on a liquid market at 86¢.
- This bettor has a solid record: 66% wins across 332 resolved bets and $17.3K in profit.
- They are betting the same broader US-Iran thesis across 6 related markets, with $15.9K deployed.
- Buying No at 86¢ aligns with recent market momentum, as Yes has fallen 3 points today and 5 points this week.
$1,720 on No | Wallet win rate: 65%
Profitable cross-market specialist
Experienced profitable cross-market trader is expressing a continued No view across the US-Iran event, with a strong long-term record and $111k positioned across related markets.
- This bettor has won 64% of 908 resolved trades and is up about $1.63M lifetime.
- They have traded 75 related markets across 48 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy.
- Selling Yes at 16¢ is equivalent to buying No at 84¢, matching their prior No thesis on this market.
$1,624 on No | Wallet win rate: 63%
Proven geopolitical cross-market bettor
Serial cross-market trader with a strong long-term record is adding a Yes position across a broader US-Iran event thesis, though this specific trade is modest relative to market volume.
- This bettor has a large track record: 64% wins across 908 resolved markets and +$1.63M profit.
- They have traded 75 markets across 48 related events, suggesting a repeat geopolitical thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Entry at 17¢ is below the current 18–19¢ market, implying they see upside on a lower-probability Yes outcome.
$1,101 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 63%
Sharp cross-market bettor
Sharp wallet with an 86% resolved win rate is extending a broader cross-market US-Iran thesis by buying No at 86¢.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $16K lifetime.
- They have built a $20.7K position across 6 related US-Iran markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
- Buying No at 86¢ aligns with current odds but comes from a wallet with a strong track record.
$1,499 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%
Proven cross-market sharp
Proven profitable wallet with an 84% resolved win rate is expressing a broader US-Iran thesis across 14 related markets and effectively buying Yes here around 15¢.
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $418K lifetime.
- They have positioned across 14 related US-Iran markets with $126K at stake.
- Selling No at 85¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 15¢, implying they see upside from current long-shot odds.
$2,550 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
Cross-market Iran diplomacy buyer
A politically relevant cross-market bettor is building a $23k US-Iran diplomacy thesis, and this trade aligns with a sharp 1-day move toward Yes.
- This bettor has built the same US-Iran thesis across 3 related markets with $23k total exposure.
- They are effectively buying Yes at 24¢ while the market has moved 14 points toward Yes today.
- The wallet has won 70% of its resolved bets, though its lifetime P&L is negative.
$1,461 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%
85% winner, 14-market thesis
Sharp 85% win-rate wallet with $415k profit is adding a No position as part of a much larger 14-market diplomatic thesis.
- This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $415k lifetime.
- They have traded 14 related markets in this event, totaling $116k of exposure.
- Buying No at 75¢ suggests they are fading the recent Yes rally.
$1,499 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%
89% winner buying YES
A profitable 89% wallet is expressing a cross-market thesis across 6 related US-Iran diplomacy markets, converting this trade into a BUY Yes position at 21¢.
- This bettor has won 17 of 19 resolved trades and is up $13.4K lifetime.
- They have $21K positioned across 6 related markets, suggesting a broader US-Iran diplomacy thesis.
- Selling No at 79¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 21¢, just below the current 22¢ market price.
$1,811 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%
Profitable 11-market NO thesis
Profitable serial cross-market trader is expressing a broad NO thesis across 11 related markets, though this specific entry has already moved from 71¢ to 79¢ equivalent.
- This trader is up about $293K lifetime and has traded over $13M across 1,109 resolved bets.
- They are running a broad thesis across 11 related markets, with about $79.7K positioned in this event.
- This trade was effectively buying No at 71¢, and the market has already moved toward them to 79¢.
$2,010 on No | Wallet win rate: 57%
Top Holders
- 0x9648...6825 — Outcome 77482282, $314,024 (69% win rate)
- 0xde7b...5f4b — Outcome 77482282, $47,168 (80% win rate)
- 0x398d...c7c3 — Outcome 77482282, $44,242 (77% win rate)
- 0xc3e4...5bf6 — Outcome 77482282, $23,095 (70% win rate)
- 0x746f...566d — Outcome 77482282, $21,010 (55% win rate)
- 0x1a6d...7104 — Outcome 77482282, $18,708 (37% win rate)
- 0x42d1...14aa — Outcome 77482282, $8,400 (100% win rate)
- 0x6139...6b7a — Outcome 77482282, $7,972 (70% win rate)
- 0x7bb3...2682 — Outcome 77482282, $6,000 (49% win rate)
- 0x4a2b...af20 — Outcome 77482282, $6,000 (45% win rate)
