Part of: US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

50 smart money signals detected, totaling $148,141.

Categories: Politics, Iran Ceasefire, Iran, Vance, Trump, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

Profitable event specialist

High-volume geopolitical trader with strong lifetime profits is adding a fresh No bet as part of broad cross-market positioning on the same US-Iran event.

  • This bettor is up about $294K lifetime across more than $29M traded.
  • They have broad positioning across 8 related markets, with over $51K committed to the same event theme.
  • Bought No at 89¢ while the market has moved down 9 points this week, reinforcing the anti-meeting view.

$2,968 on No | Wallet win rate: 47%

Profitable cross-market bettor

Moderately proven profitable wallet is expressing a repeated cross-market thesis across 6 related US-Iran markets, buying No on a liquid market at 86¢.

  • This bettor has a solid record: 66% wins across 332 resolved bets and $17.3K in profit.
  • They are betting the same broader US-Iran thesis across 6 related markets, with $15.9K deployed.
  • Buying No at 86¢ aligns with recent market momentum, as Yes has fallen 3 points today and 5 points this week.

$1,720 on No | Wallet win rate: 65%

Profitable cross-market specialist

Experienced profitable cross-market trader is expressing a continued No view across the US-Iran event, with a strong long-term record and $111k positioned across related markets.

  • This bettor has won 64% of 908 resolved trades and is up about $1.63M lifetime.
  • They have traded 75 related markets across 48 events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy.
  • Selling Yes at 16¢ is equivalent to buying No at 84¢, matching their prior No thesis on this market.

$1,624 on No | Wallet win rate: 63%

Proven geopolitical cross-market bettor

Serial cross-market trader with a strong long-term record is adding a Yes position across a broader US-Iran event thesis, though this specific trade is modest relative to market volume.

  • This bettor has a large track record: 64% wins across 908 resolved markets and +$1.63M profit.
  • They have traded 75 markets across 48 related events, suggesting a repeat geopolitical thesis rather than a one-off bet.
  • Entry at 17¢ is below the current 18–19¢ market, implying they see upside on a lower-probability Yes outcome.

$1,101 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 63%

Sharp cross-market bettor

Sharp wallet with an 86% resolved win rate is extending a broader cross-market US-Iran thesis by buying No at 86¢.

  • This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $16K lifetime.
  • They have built a $20.7K position across 6 related US-Iran markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
  • Buying No at 86¢ aligns with current odds but comes from a wallet with a strong track record.

$1,499 on No | Wallet win rate: 86%

Proven cross-market sharp

Proven profitable wallet with an 84% resolved win rate is expressing a broader US-Iran thesis across 14 related markets and effectively buying Yes here around 15¢.

  • This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up $418K lifetime.
  • They have positioned across 14 related US-Iran markets with $126K at stake.
  • Selling No at 85¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 15¢, implying they see upside from current long-shot odds.

$2,550 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%

Cross-market Iran diplomacy buyer

A politically relevant cross-market bettor is building a $23k US-Iran diplomacy thesis, and this trade aligns with a sharp 1-day move toward Yes.

  • This bettor has built the same US-Iran thesis across 3 related markets with $23k total exposure.
  • They are effectively buying Yes at 24¢ while the market has moved 14 points toward Yes today.
  • The wallet has won 70% of its resolved bets, though its lifetime P&L is negative.

$1,461 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%

85% winner, 14-market thesis

Sharp 85% win-rate wallet with $415k profit is adding a No position as part of a much larger 14-market diplomatic thesis.

  • This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $415k lifetime.
  • They have traded 14 related markets in this event, totaling $116k of exposure.
  • Buying No at 75¢ suggests they are fading the recent Yes rally.

$1,499 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

89% winner buying YES

A profitable 89% wallet is expressing a cross-market thesis across 6 related US-Iran diplomacy markets, converting this trade into a BUY Yes position at 21¢.

  • This bettor has won 17 of 19 resolved trades and is up $13.4K lifetime.
  • They have $21K positioned across 6 related markets, suggesting a broader US-Iran diplomacy thesis.
  • Selling No at 79¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 21¢, just below the current 22¢ market price.

$1,811 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%

Profitable 11-market NO thesis

Profitable serial cross-market trader is expressing a broad NO thesis across 11 related markets, though this specific entry has already moved from 71¢ to 79¢ equivalent.

  • This trader is up about $293K lifetime and has traded over $13M across 1,109 resolved bets.
  • They are running a broad thesis across 11 related markets, with about $79.7K positioned in this event.
  • This trade was effectively buying No at 71¢, and the market has already moved toward them to 79¢.

$2,010 on No | Wallet win rate: 57%

Top Holders

  1. 0x9648...6825 Outcome 77482282, $314,024 (69% win rate)
  2. 0xde7b...5f4b Outcome 77482282, $47,168 (80% win rate)
  3. 0x398d...c7c3 Outcome 77482282, $44,242 (77% win rate)
  4. 0xc3e4...5bf6 Outcome 77482282, $23,095 (70% win rate)
  5. 0x746f...566d Outcome 77482282, $21,010 (55% win rate)
  6. 0x1a6d...7104 Outcome 77482282, $18,708 (37% win rate)
  7. 0x42d1...14aa Outcome 77482282, $8,400 (100% win rate)
  8. 0x6139...6b7a Outcome 77482282, $7,972 (70% win rate)
  9. 0x7bb3...2682 Outcome 77482282, $6,000 (49% win rate)
  10. 0x4a2b...af20 Outcome 77482282, $6,000 (45% win rate)

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US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

ResolvedUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?$148,141 tracked50 signalsPoliticsIran CeasefireIranVanceTrumpU.S. x IranGeopolitics

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Notable Trades

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

27d ago

$2,968 on No at 89¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

27d ago

$1,720 on No at 86¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

27d ago

$1,624 on No at 84¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

27d ago

$1,101 on Yes at 17¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

27d ago

$1,499 on No at 86¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

27d ago

$2,550 on Yes at 15¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

31d ago

$1,461 on Yes at 24¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

31d ago

$1,499 on No at 75¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

31d ago

$1,811 on Yes at 21¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

31d ago

$2,010 on No at 71¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

31d ago

$2,319 on Yes at 30¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

31d ago

$1,801 on No at 79¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

31d ago

$4,841 on Yes at 19¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

32d ago

$1,000 on No at 90¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

32d ago

$6,665 on No at 89¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

32d ago

$1,293 on No at 89¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

32d ago

$6,898 on Yes at 12¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

33d ago

$4,005 on Yes at 11¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

33d ago

$3,480 on Yes at 13¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

33d ago

$2,010 on No at 86¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

33d ago

$1,900 on No at 83¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

33d ago

$1,640 on Yes at 18¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

33d ago

$1,139 on Yes at 20¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

33d ago

$1,000 on Yes at 20¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

33d ago

$1,000 on Yes at 20¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

34d ago

$1,620 on Yes at 19¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

27d ago

$4,500 on Yes at 16¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

34d ago

$5,000 on No at 84¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

34d ago

$1,316 on Yes at 17¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

34d ago

$1,298 on No at 82¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

34d ago

$6,302 on No at 82¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

35d ago

$1,302 on No at 79¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

35d ago

$3,950 on No at 75¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

35d ago

$6,567 on No at 73¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

35d ago

$1,330 on No at 70¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

36d ago

$1,941 on Yes at 29¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

36d ago

$1,843 on No at 73¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

36d ago

$1,898 on Yes at 27¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

36d ago

$5,840 on Yes at 27¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

36d ago

$1,902 on Yes at 28¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

36d ago

$2,361 on Yes at 26¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

36d ago

$3,685 on Yes at 20¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

37d ago

$7,892 on No at 76¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

37d ago

$1,923 on Yes at 25¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

37d ago

$2,725 on Yes at 23¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

37d ago

$1,276 on No at 77¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

37d ago

$2,000 on Yes at 28¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

37d ago

$11,000 on No at 76¢

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

38d ago

$8,000

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

38d ago

$1,440 on No at 72¢

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