84% winner buying No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Proven 84% win-rate trader with strong cross-market history is taking a fresh No position while also positioning across related markets.
Total
$2,750
Trades
1
Win Rate
84%
Wallet P&L
+$409,955
Analysis
- This bettor wins 84% of resolved trades and is up about $410k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $1.3M placed across 91 related markets and an 84% hit rate.
- This is part of a broader 5-market thesis worth $43.8k, suggesting more than a one-off bet.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 55¢
Detected May 1, 2026 at 1:27 AM