Part of: Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?
This prediction market asks whether President Trump, the U.S. government, or the military will publicly and officially announce that U.S. military operations against Iran have concluded by May 31, 2026. The market resolves “Yes” only if a qualifying official statement clearly says the operation has ended; otherwise it resolves “No.” PolySpotter is tracking $222,282 in smart money across 28 signals, including recent sharp activity on both Yes and No.
40 smart money signals detected, totaling $275,244.
Categories: Politics, Middle East, Geopolitics, Trump, Iran, US-Iran, U.S. x Iran, Iran Ceasefire
Notable Trades
Profitable cross-market contrarian
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader is taking a fresh contrarian No position after heavy prior activity across related markets.
- This bettor has made $1.63M in profit across 902 resolved trades.
- They are active across 3 related markets with $188.6K positioned on this event.
- Buying No at 9¢ goes against a sharp Yes move, implying a high-upside contrarian view.
$5,681 on No | Wallet win rate: 63%
Serial cross-market whale buying YES
Serial cross-market trader with a profitable history bought Yes before a major volume spike and 15-point move to 95%.
- This bettor has traded 64 related markets across 35 events, with a 64% win rate and $48.5K profit.
- They bought $8.5K of Yes at 80–84¢ before the market moved to 95¢.
- Volume surged 122x above normal, matching a sharp 70-point one-day move toward Yes.
$8,514 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%
11-wallet linked No cluster
High-conviction coordinated No flow from 11 wallets, including linked funding and several profitable serial cross-market bettors, though much of the flow may be Yes profit-taking rather than fresh No buying.
- 11 wallets put $66.8k toward No, including linked wallets moving in the same direction.
- Several bettors have strong histories, including wallets up $1.55M, $255k, and $223k lifetime.
- No now trades near 6¢ after this cluster paid much higher prices, giving a cheaper entry than the original flow.
$66,776 on No
64% serial trader bought before spike
Serial cross-market trader bought $10.2k of Yes before a massive price move and market-wide volume spike, though the current 98¢ price is already above a reasonable copy range.
- This serial event trader has bet $1.9M across 64 markets and wins 64% of resolved bets.
- They bought $10.2k of Yes at an average 79¢ before the price surged to 98¢.
- Market volume spiked up to 69x normal, with Yes up 73 points in the past day.
$10,170 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%
81% serial cross-market bettor
High-score alert from an 81% winning serial cross-market trader adding bullish Yes exposure amid a major volume spike and sharp price move.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and has deployed $1.25M across 67 markets.
- They are positioned across 7 related markets in this event, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- This trade effectively bought Yes at 88¢, and the market has already moved to 95¢ after a 68x volume spike.
$1,370 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%
Serial cross-market winner buying Yes
A profitable serial cross-market trader bought Yes as the market surged on heavy volume, with related positions across six markets suggesting a broader thesis.
- This bettor has won 67% of 639 resolved bets and is up about $256K lifetime.
- They have traded 78 related events and put $46.9K across six markets in this event.
- Yes jumped 42 points amid a 68x volume spike, and this trade entered at 88¢ before the market moved to 95¢.
$1,760 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%
Sharp cross-market trader buying Yes
Strong Yes signal from a proven 74% win-rate cross-market trader, plus 13 wallets buying the same side amid a major volume spike and sharp price move.
- This bettor wins 74% of resolved bets and is up $221K lifetime across $23.8M traded.
- They are positioned across 6 related markets with $84.8K in exposure, pointing to a broader Iran-operation thesis.
- 13 wallets bought the same Yes side for $61K as market volume spiked 63x and Yes jumped 34% in a day.
$1,737 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%
Serial trader led Yes surge
Strong Yes flow from a serial cross-market trader plus 13-wallet one-sided buying and a 63x volume spike, though the best entry has already moved sharply from 32¢ to 60¢.
- This bettor has traded 64 related markets across 35 events and has a 64% resolved win rate.
- 13 wallets bought the same Yes side for about $61K during a 63x volume spike.
- The trader entered at 32¢ and the market has already jumped to 60¢, so the original edge may be mostly gone.
$4,963 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%
97% winner joins 13-wallet YES flow
Strong geopolitical alert: a 97% win-rate serial cross-market trader bought Yes alongside 13-wallet one-sided flow and a 63x volume spike before the price jumped.
- This bettor has won 97% of 1,373 resolved bets and is up $254K.
- 13 wallets bought Yes together for $61K as market volume spiked 63x.
- They entered at 47¢ before Yes moved to 60¢, so the sharp entry has already paid off.
$4,901 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 97%
Profitable cross-market trader buying NO
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader is effectively buying No after positioning across multiple related Iran-operation markets.
- This bettor has made $1.55M in profit across 902 resolved bets.
- They have traded 64 markets across 44 related events, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- Selling Yes at 32¢ is equivalent to buying No at 68¢ on a market currently moving toward Yes.
$5,979 on No | Wallet win rate: 63%
Top Holders
- 0x662a...77b7 — Outcome 10508815, $107,367 (38% win rate)
- 0xf792...e24d — Outcome 10508815, $30,000
- 0x6418...730c — Outcome 10508815, $27,315 (63% win rate)
- 0xd1ac...08d5 — Outcome 10508815, $23,918 (49% win rate)
- 0x8f15...f9f2 — Outcome 10508815, $15,270
- 0x4a2b...af20 — Outcome 10508815, $14,000 (42% win rate)
- 0x76fe...36e8 — Outcome 10508815, $13,793
- 0xa022...77f8 — Outcome 10508815, $13,675 (70% win rate)
- 0xd83b...4863 — Outcome 10508815, $13,514
- 0x95f4...202a — Outcome 10508815, $12,901
