Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?

This Polymarket tracks whether President Trump, the US government, or the military will officially announce that military operations against Iran have ended by May 31, 2026. For a Yes resolution, the statement must be public, official, and clearly say the operation has concluded; leaks, unnamed sources, or vague remarks do not count. PolySpotter is currently tracking $12,071 in smart money activity on this market, including a recent 3-wallet Iran ceasefire cluster alert.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $12,071.

Categories: Politics, Middle East, Geopolitics, Trump, Iran, US-Iran, U.S. x Iran, Iran Ceasefire

Notable Trades

3-wallet Iran ceasefire cluster

Three wallets piled into Yes for $12k during a 32x volume spike in a fast-moving geopolitics market, creating a coordinated directional signal despite mixed wallet quality.

  • Three wallets bought Yes for $12.1k in the same market during a 32x volume spike
  • This is a news-driven geopolitics market, and the price jumped 21.5 points in a day as money rushed in
  • The biggest buyer has a solid 71% win rate across 21 resolved markets and put up $8.9k of the cluster

$12,071 on Yes

Top Holders

  1. 0x24c5...e372 Yes, $10,823 (71% win rate)
  2. 0x9648...6825 Yes, $7,818 (71% win rate)
  3. 0x0562...9d66 No, $6,004 (42% win rate)
  4. 0x4a2b...af20 No, $6,000 (38% win rate)
  5. 0xdaef...54e9 No, $5,432 (57% win rate)
  6. 0x613c...e423 Yes, $4,120 (46% win rate)
  7. 0x2b42...62af Yes, $4,000 (52% win rate)
  8. 0xb100...6461 No, $3,681 (57% win rate)
  9. 0xa99c...3070 No, $3,292
  10. 0x5f83...8398 No, $3,027 (0% win rate)

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?

53d$12,071 tracked1 signalPoliticsMiddle EastGeopoliticsTrumpIranUS-IranU.S. x IranIran Ceasefire
Yes
74¢
No
27¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Notable Trades

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?

2h ago

$12,071 on Yes at 82¢

82¢74¢8¢
Trump Iran Operations End by May 31 Prediction Odds | PolySpotter