Sharp cross-market No cluster

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Coordinated No buying is backed by profitable cross-market traders, a major volume spike, and a 15-point move in No, though there is also meaningful opposite-side Yes flow.
Total
$12,707
Trades
8
Analysis
- Several profitable political bettors are lining up on No, including one wallet with a 92% record across 153 resolved markets.
- Five wallets put $12.7K on No while the market saw a 63x volume spike and No jumped about 15 points.
- Entry averaged near 51¢, and current No odds around 56¢ still leave room if this flow is right.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 51¢
Detected May 1, 2026 at 6:51 PM