Serial sharp buying long-shot YES

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Profitable serial cross-market trader with an 86% resolved win rate is taking a small but notable long-shot YES position at 8¢.
Total
$3,907
Trades
1
Win Rate
86%
Wallet P&L
+$1,204,101
Analysis
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $1.2M lifetime.
- They have traded across 166 markets and $4.4M in cross-market volume, suggesting a repeatable research edge.
- Entry at 8¢ implies a long-shot thesis with over 12x upside if the market resolves Yes.
Copy Trade
Buy Yes at 8¢
Detected May 6, 2026 at 3:10 PM