Part of: US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
This prediction market asks whether the US government or military will officially confirm it has gained physical possession of any amount of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026. The market resolves Yes only if an official US announcement confirms actual custody or control, not merely a deal, plan, or agreement. PolySpotter is tracking $2,333 in smart money activity across 1 signal, including recent sharp-cluster buying on Yes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
30 smart money signals detected, totaling $258,784.
Categories: Trump, Iran, U.S. x Iran, Geopolitics, Iran Ceasefire, Politics
Notable Trades
90% cross-market sharp
Sharp 90% lifetime winner with extensive cross-market history is buying a low-probability Yes outcome despite a liquid market.
- This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades and is up $153k lifetime.
- They have traded across 72 events and 124 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market edge.
- Entry at 7¢ is a long-shot bet with about 14x upside if the market resolves Yes.
$2,333 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%
Profitable serial event trader
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader with $1.66M lifetime P&L is reopening/adding exposure to a low-probability Yes thesis at 6¢ across related Iran uranium markets.
- This bettor has a long track record: 908 resolved trades, 64% wins, and $1.66M lifetime profit.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $3.4M deployed across 78 related-event markets.
- Entry at 6¢ is a cheap asymmetric bet, implying they see more upside than the market’s current 6% odds.
$8,141 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 63%
$1.8M sharp re-enters Yes
Proven sharp wallet with 77% win rate and $1.8M lifetime profit is re-entering a low-probability Yes position across related Iran uranium markets.
- This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $1.8M lifetime.
- They have already traded this market heavily, with $88k previously invested on Yes.
- Buying at 7¢ gives a high-upside entry if they are right about a policy or military development.
$1,400 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%
Serial sharp buying long-shot YES
Profitable serial cross-market trader with an 86% resolved win rate is taking a small but notable long-shot YES position at 8¢.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $1.2M lifetime.
- They have traded across 166 markets and $4.4M in cross-market volume, suggesting a repeatable research edge.
- Entry at 8¢ implies a long-shot thesis with over 12x upside if the market resolves Yes.
$3,907 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 82%
$1M-profit cross-market bettor
Profitable $1M lifetime wallet is making a cross-market geopolitical bet, though size is modest relative to this liquid market.
- This bettor is up about $1.0M lifetime across more than 1,000 resolved trades.
- They are building a cross-market thesis in the same event, with about $3.7K positioned across 2 related markets.
- Entry at 10¢ implies a high-upside bet if the uranium transfer scenario becomes more likely.
$2,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%
90% serial cross-market bettor
A highly experienced serial cross-market trader with a 90% resolved-bet record is taking a small but notable 10¢ Yes position on a geopolitics market.
- This bettor has won 90% of 157 resolved bets and is up about $155k lifetime.
- They have traded across 71 events and 122 markets, suggesting a repeatable cross-market strategy.
- Entry at 10¢ implies a long-shot view that the market is underpricing the chance of US possession.
$2,222 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%
90% serial cross-market bettor
A highly active cross-market trader with a 90% resolved win rate is taking a fresh $3k longshot Yes position on a liquid geopolitical market.
- This bettor has won 90% of resolved markets, with 141 wins and $155k in profit.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $2.95M placed across 121 markets in 70 events.
- Entry at 10¢ implies a high-upside thesis if the US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31.
$3,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%
$1M-profit cross-market bettor
Profitable high-volume wallet is making a small but thesis-driven cross-market bet on a geopolitical outcome at long odds.
- This bettor has won 71% of 1,068 resolved trades and is up about $1.0M lifetime.
- They have put $3.9k across two related Iran uranium markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
- Entry at 9¢ offers long-shot upside if the US confirms possession by the deadline.
$2,700 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%
Profitable cross-market bettor
A highly profitable high-volume wallet is taking a small but notable Yes position while also trading related markets in the same event.
- This bettor has won 71% of 1,065 resolved trades and is up about $1.0M lifetime.
- They are positioning across 2 related markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- Entry at 9¢ is a low-probability, high-upside bet on a geopolitical resolution.
$2,475 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%
Profitable geopolitics grinder
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a 71% win rate and $260k profit is buying the heavily favored No side in a geopolitics market, making this a credible sharp-money signal despite only one alert type.
- This bettor has won 273 of 384 resolved trades and is up about $260k lifetime
- They have traded 154 markets across 83 events, which points to a repeatable process rather than a one-off bet
- They bought No at 88¢ in a liquid market, signaling confidence this low-probability Yes outcome stays off the table
$7,136 on No | Wallet win rate: 70%
Top Holders
- 0x0a85...fe9d — Yes, $1,200,333 (26% win rate)
- 0x6139...6b7a — Yes, $621,518 (70% win rate)
- 0xde7b...5f4b — Yes, $402,177 (82% win rate)
- 0xc84f...e0c5 — Yes, $260,161 (90% win rate)
- 0x7523...4c4c — No, $252,369 (48% win rate)
- 0xa41e...30f9 — Yes, $221,121 (50% win rate)
- 0x7ea7...79ac — No, $184,287
- 0x1e1f...c855 — Yes, $183,320 (57% win rate)
- 0xc8ab...6418 — No, $162,655 (47% win rate)
- 0xc15b...38af — No, $145,686 (88% win rate)
