Smart Money SignalScore: 10.0
88% cross-market political trader
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
A highly experienced cross-market political trader with an 88% resolved win rate is making a sizable bearish Vance nomination trade as part of a broader 5-market 2028 GOP positioning thesis.
Total
$18,948
Trades
1
Win Rate
88%
Wallet P&L
-$85,751
Analysis
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades across more than 1,500 markets, with a long history of cross-market political positioning.
- They have $90K spread across 5 markets in this event, suggesting a broader 2028 GOP nomination thesis rather than a one-off trade.
- Selling Yes at 37¢ converts to buying No at 63¢, aligned with the market’s current bearish pricing on Vance.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 63¢
Detected May 10, 2026 at 10:23 PM