Part of: Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
This Polymarket prediction market asks whether J.D. Vance will win and accept the Republican Party’s 2028 nomination for U.S. president. The market has $1,200 in tracked smart money and one recorded smart money signal; current contract odds are not provided in the available metadata. It resolves on November 7, 2028, using a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
23 smart money signals detected, totaling $271,549.
Categories: United States, Politics, US Election, Elections, World Elections, Global Elections, Earn 4%, Primaries
Notable Trades
Profitable serial trader buys Yes
A highly active, historically profitable trader is taking a fresh Yes position amid a 31.9x market volume spike, though the trade size is modest relative to liquidity.
- This trader has resolved 13,241 markets and is up $228,608 overall.
- Their $1,174 trade is a fresh bet on Yes, amid a 31.9x volume spike versus the market’s historical average.
- The trader sold No at 59¢, equivalent to buying Yes at 41¢; recent odds have moved against Yes.
$1,211 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%
Profitable serial trader buys Yes
A highly active, historically profitable trader is taking a fresh Yes position amid a 31.9x market volume spike, though the trade size is modest relative to liquidity.
- This trader has resolved 13,241 markets and is up $228,608 overall.
- Their $1,174 trade is a fresh bet on Yes, amid a 31.9x volume spike versus the market’s historical average.
- The trader sold No at 59¢, equivalent to buying Yes at 41¢; recent odds have moved against Yes.
$1,174 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%
New wallet scaling into Yes
A repeat new-wallet bettor is adding another $1,240 to an existing Yes position, showing sustained conviction despite having no resolved track record.
- This repeat bettor has flagged $5,157 across four alerts and already holds a $4,754 Yes position.
- The fresh $1,240 purchase at 44¢ increases an existing position rather than merely opening a small trade.
- The market is highly liquid, but the wallet has no resolved positions to verify an edge.
$1,200 on Yes
New wallet scaling into Yes
A repeat new-wallet bettor is adding another $1,240 to an existing Yes position, showing sustained conviction despite having no resolved track record.
- This repeat bettor has flagged $5,157 across four alerts and already holds a $4,754 Yes position.
- The fresh $1,240 purchase at 44¢ increases an existing position rather than merely opening a small trade.
- The market is highly liquid, but the wallet has no resolved positions to verify an edge.
$1,180 on Yes
New wallet scaling into Yes
A repeat new-wallet bettor is adding another $1,240 to an existing Yes position, showing sustained conviction despite having no resolved track record.
- This repeat bettor has flagged $5,157 across four alerts and already holds a $4,754 Yes position.
- The fresh $1,240 purchase at 44¢ increases an existing position rather than merely opening a small trade.
- The market is highly liquid, but the wallet has no resolved positions to verify an edge.
$1,240 on Yes
New whale buying Yes
A 1-day-old wallet with repeated large-bet flags is adding $11.3k to J.D. Vance Yes, part of $91.9k in recent flagged activity despite no resolved track record yet.
- This 1-day-old wallet has already made 7 large flagged bets totaling $91.9k.
- It put $11.3k on Yes at 39–40¢, suggesting meaningful conviction on a long-dated political market.
- The market has moved +6% this week, so this buy is adding into upward momentum.
$31,178 on Yes
Four-wallet Yes conviction cluster
Four wallets committed nearly $28,000 to Yes, including a bettor with an 87% win rate and proven edge plus a serial cross-market trader.
- Four wallets put nearly $28,000 behind Yes, including three fresh or increased Yes positions at 46¢.
- One bettor wins 87% of trades at an average 62¢ entry and is up $2,331, indicating a meaningful track record beyond favorite-heavy bets.
- Another serial cross-market trader has won 92% across 50 events, while the market has recently risen 3.1% over the week.
$27,958 on Yes
88% winner adding Yes
A proven 88% winning wallet is adding to an existing J.D. Vance Yes position at 42¢, though the market is liquid and long-dated.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $17,252 lifetime.
- They are adding to an existing Yes position, now with over $29,000 invested around 41–42¢.
- Entry at 42¢ implies a roughly 2.4x payout if Vance wins the nomination.
$1,077 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%
88% winner adding Yes
A proven 88% winning wallet is adding to an existing J.D. Vance Yes position at 42¢, though the market is liquid and long-dated.
- This bettor wins 88% of resolved trades and is up $17,252 lifetime.
- They are adding to an existing Yes position, now with over $29,000 invested around 41–42¢.
- Entry at 42¢ implies a roughly 2.4x payout if Vance wins the nomination.
$4,941 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%
Profitable wallets buying Yes
Three wallets, including one with an 85% record over 13 resolved bets, coordinated bullish exposure to Vance at about 40¢, though sizing is modest relative to market liquidity.
- One bettor in the cluster wins 85% of resolved bets and is up $700 lifetime.
- Three wallets all took the same bullish side within minutes, totaling about $3.9K.
- Selling No around 60¢ is equivalent to buying Yes near 40¢.
$3,859 on Yes
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $2,614,030
- 0xa8a9...bb81 — Yes, $595,947
- 0x1e1f...c855 — Yes, $331,698 (59% win rate)
- 0xcc29...7774 — Yes, $151,121 (58% win rate)
- 0xcf19...6402 — Yes, $144,005 (58% win rate)
- 0xe6ca...b27a — Yes, $122,601 (76% win rate)
- 0xc65e...1502 — Yes, $110,694
- 0x2b86...2dc8 — Yes, $76,208
- 0x5a56...adab — Yes, $71,630 (68% win rate)
- 0xde7b...5f4b — Yes, $65,278 (79% win rate)
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