Profitable serial cross-market trader

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to unfreeze any Iranian assets by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Unfreezing Iranian assets refers to the release, transfer, or restoration of Iranian access to any assets that are frozen, blocked, or otherwise inaccessible due to U.S. sanctions or restrictions. This includes both assets held in the United States and assets held in foreign jurisdictions where access is restricted due to U.S. sanctions. The removal of sanctions which freeze these assets will also be considered to be unfreezing Iranian assets. The United States will be considered to have agreed to unfreeze Iranian assets if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has agreed to unfreeze any Iranian assets. - The unfreezing of any Iranian assets is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means. Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.
Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 75% record and $310k profit is buying No on a geopolitics market with meaningful recent movement.
Total
$2,168
Trades
1
Win Rate
77%
Wallet P&L
+$120,673
Analysis
- This bettor has won 75% of 99 resolved bets and is up $310k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader, with $408k placed across 34 events.
- Buying No at 76¢ shows they are fading the recent Yes move despite Yes rising about 11 points this week.
Copy Trade
Buy No at 76¢
Detected May 20, 2026 at 10:31 PM