Part of: What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?
This prediction market asks whether the United States, under Trump, will agree to unfreeze any Iranian assets by May 31, 2026. It resolves to Yes if any frozen, blocked, or otherwise inaccessible Iranian assets are released, transferred, or restored due to a U.S. agreement; otherwise it resolves to No. PolySpotter is tracking $1,496 in smart money activity and 1 recent signal on this market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to unfreeze any Iranian assets by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Unfreezing Iranian assets refers to the release, transfer, or restoration of Iranian access to any assets that are frozen, blocked, or otherwise inaccessible due to U.S. sanctions or restrictions. This includes both assets held in the United States and assets held in foreign jurisdictions where access is restricted due to U.S. sanctions. The removal of sanctions which freeze these assets will also be considered to be unfreezing Iranian assets. The United States will be considered to have agreed to unfreeze Iranian assets if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has agreed to unfreeze any Iranian assets. - The unfreezing of any Iranian assets is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means. Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,496.
Categories: Iran, Sanctions, toll, Iran Ceasefire, Trump, Strait of Hormuz, Enrich, Geopolitics, Politics, U.S. x Iran, Uranium
Notable Trades
Profitable serial cross-market trader
A long-running profitable cross-market trader with 1,460 resolved bets and +$197k lifetime P&L bought No on a geopolitical market.
- This bettor has a large track record: 1,460 resolved bets and about $197k in lifetime profit.
- They repeatedly trade related markets, with activity across 154 event groups and $1.5M flagged in this pattern.
- Buying No at 85¢ fits the market’s current 86% No pricing, with odds moving 5 points toward this side today.
$1,496 on No | Wallet win rate: 65%
Top Holders
- 0xbaa2...2c73 — Yes, $14,197 (63% win rate)
- 0xc040...beac — Yes, $9,748 (46% win rate)
- 0xd4b7...65c0 — No, $7,000 (100% win rate)
- 0x74bf...2a6e — No, $6,565 (70% win rate)
- 0x60a9...5a71 — No, $6,341 (49% win rate)
- 0xef9f...8924 — Yes, $5,619
- 0xc8ab...6418 — No, $5,486 (47% win rate)
- 0x9d73...216b — Yes, $5,252 (74% win rate)
- 0x5c90...79f4 — Yes, $5,200 (33% win rate)
- 0xe738...df65 — No, $5,000 (65% win rate)
